MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Caballero homered to center (420 feet), Domínguez scored and Chisholm Jr. scored. → win prob 93→99% NYY

MID 9TH+5NYY

NYY

42-27

TOR

34-37

MLB · At bat

Mid 90-00 outs

Pitcher

—

Batter

—

LastMiddle of the 9th inning

Live · model leanMid 9thPolls every 30s

77.4%

NYY wins · current

Pre-game: 61.5% NYY

NYY 8 · 3 TOR

NYY +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 9

away leadsTOR leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingNYYTop 9th Inning · 5-3
+34pp→ 93% WP
Rice · homered to right (381 feet), McMahon scored.
ClutchTORBottom 6th Inning · 3-3
+19pp→ 49% WP
Schneider · homered to center (413 feet).
SwingNYYTop 6th Inning · 3-2
+17pp→ 69% WP
Volpe · singled to left, Schuemann scored, Volpe to second.
Lead flipTORBottom 4th Inning · 2-2
+14pp→ 50% WP
Lukes · singled to center, Clement scored, Lukes to second, Springer to third.
SwingNYYBottom 3rd Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 75% WP
Pinango · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Kirk out at second, Lukes to third.

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.96

W. Warren

7-1 · 3.41 ERA

P. Corbin

2-3 · 4.55 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

TOR no-vig %

46.9%

open 46.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.4%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
34.9%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
33.6%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
35.6%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-33.9ppvs pre-game · NYY favored

Leverage

±2.6

pp · next play

low · 5/100

Mostly decided · 9th or later · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.91

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

54.1%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.4pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best

-130DraftKings

edge +8.4pp · implied 53.1%

TOR

no live price

Book	NYY	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	-130★	+100	+8.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

TOR vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.3± 3.9low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.2± 2.1medium

Hits

Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 0.9high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.8high
Cody BellingerNYY
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.2± 2.0high
Ernie ClementTOR
2.0± 2.3high
Alejandro KirkTOR
1.8± 2.5low

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.0± 1.4high
Cody BellingerNYY
0.7± 0.9high
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low
Ryan WeathersNYY
3.0± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

TOR

.761

OPS

◀

.716

.702

.329

OBP

◀

.319

.314

5.07

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.07

3.32

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.08

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.27

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

The One modelEdge

● Live

NYY★

Yankees

50-28

vs61.5%NYY

TOR

Blue Jays

33-50

NYY 61.5%win prob38.5% TOR

NYY 1595 · TOR 1463Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
P. Goldschmidt1B	.295	5	0	3	0	0	0	0
B. Rice1B	.293	5	1	2	2	1	0	2
J. DominguezLF	.211	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
C. BellingerLF	.265	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Rosario3B	.252	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CaballeroSS	.258	5	1	1	3	1	0	1
M. SchuemannSS	.231	5	2	1	0	0	0	1
A. VolpeSS	.211	4	1	2	2	0	0	1
A. SanchezC	.200	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
R. McMahon3B	.211	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.229	0	1	0	0	0	3	0
S. JonesRF	.233	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		39	8	12	8	2	4	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.295

.293

.211

.265

.252

.258

.231

.211

.200

.211

.229

.233

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
W. WarrenSP	4.0	8	2	2	3	1	98
T. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
J. BirdRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	12
B. HeadrickRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
C. DovalRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
Team	8.0	9	3	3	3	6	153

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

153

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. SpringerDH	.209	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
N. LukesRF	.305	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
A. KirkC	.269	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
Y. PinangoLF	.292	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Okamoto3B	.235	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
J. SanchezRF	.287	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
E. Clement2B	.304	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	.133	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
C. McAdoo2B	.174	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. StrawRF	.245	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	3	9	3	1	3	6