MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Siri struck out swinging. → win prob 41→49% TB

END 7THTied

40-27

LAA

29-42

MLB · At bat

End 70-00 outs

Pitcher

—

Batter

—

LastEnd of the 7th inning

Live · model leanEnd 7thPolls every 30s

53.9%

TB wins · current

Pre-game: 59.7% TB

TB 3 · 3 LAA

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsLAA leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipLAATop 7th Inning · 3-3
+13pp→ 59% WP
Díaz grounded into double play, third to second to first, Mesa Jr. out at second.
Lead flipLAABottom 5th Inning · 3-3
+15pp→ 55% WP
Adell · singled to left, Porter scored, Siri to third.
ClutchLAABottom 5th Inning · 3-2
+13pp→ 40% WP
Walton · homered to right center (386 feet).
SwingTBTop 4th Inning · 3-1
+10pp→ 76% WP
Williamson · homered to center (394 feet).
Lead flipTBTop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+19pp→ 65% WP
Simpson · singled to center, Aranda scored and Mesa Jr. scored, Mullins to second.

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 11.17

C. Legumina

2-1 · 3.07 ERA

G. Rodriguez

2-2 · 8.10 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

LAA no-vig %

47.7%

open 47.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
39.7%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
35.2%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.8%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

46.0%

+6.3ppvs pre-game · TB favored

Calibrated · at ~46% reads, home has won 41% (266)

Leverage

±11.8

pp · next play

peak · 89/100

Tied · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.22

CLV pp

Open price

-121

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.3%

Close no-vig

52.1%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.2pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

★ best

-107DraftKings

edge +11.2pp · implied 48.5%

LAA

no live price

Book	TB	LAA	Best edge
DraftKings	-107★	-122	+11.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

LAA vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Jose SorianoLAA
5.6± 1.9medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.2high
Jo AdellLAA
1.2± 1.6high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.0± 1.6low

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
1.9± 1.6high
Jo AdellLAA
1.7± 2.4high
Zach NetoLAA
1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.0± 1.9low
Trey ManciniLAA
1.0± 1.1low
Jose SiriLAA
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.2± 3.8low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.6± 3.0low
Steven MatzTB
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

LAA

.716

OPS

◀

.717

.707

.335

OBP

◀

.319

.318

4.46

Runs / G

4.50

4.49

3.97

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.57

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

The One modelEdge

● Live

TB★

Rays

53-27

vs59.7%TB

LAA

Angels

31-46

TB 59.7%win prob40.3% LAA

TB 1544 · LAA 1447Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Y. DiazDH	.320	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Aranda1B	.273	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.202	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.270	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.268	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.227	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Williamson2B	.257	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.241	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.179	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
Team		26	3	7	3	1	2	2

Player

AVG

RBI

.320

.273

.202

.270

.268

.227

.257

.241

.179

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. LeguminaRP	1.2	2	1	1	0	1	28
I. SeymourRP	3.1	2	2	2	3	3	72
K. KellyRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	22
Team	7.0	5	3	3	3	7	122

Player

C. LeguminaRP

1.2

I. SeymourRP

3.1

K. KellyRP

2.0

Team

7.0

122

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Z. NetoSS	.224	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. TroutCF	.225	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. MecklerLF	.295	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. AdellRF	.254	2	1	2	1	0	1	0
N. Schanuel1B	.259	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. GuzmanSS	.238	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
N. Madrigal3B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Walton3B	.296	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
L. PorterC	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
J. SiriLF	.326	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		25	3	5	3	1	3	7