MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Marte struck out swinging. → win prob 67→84% ARI

RAIN DELAY, TOP 9TH+1ARI

ARI

35-35

CIN

33-36

MLB · At bat

Top 90-00 outs

Pitcher· CIN

Z. Maxwell

1.0 IP, 2 K, 1 ER

Batter· ARI

L. Groover

0-3, 2 K

LastZach Maxwell pitches to LuJames Groover

Live · model leanRain Delay, Top 9thPolls every 30s

55.2%

ARI wins · current

Pre-game: 51.8% CIN

ARI 4 · 3 CIN

ARI +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8

away leadsCIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingARIBottom 8th Inning · 4-3
+17pp→ 84% WP
Marte · struck out swinging.
Lead flipARITop 8th Inning · 4-3
+32pp→ 73% WP
Moreno · homered to right (353 feet).
Lead flipCINBottom 6th Inning · 3-3
+19pp→ 51% WP
Marte · homered to left center (448 feet).
Lead flipARITop 6th Inning · 3-2
+30pp→ 64% WP
Perdomo · homered to right (400 feet), Vargas scored.
SwingCINBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2
+14pp→ 66% WP
Suárez doubled to right, Lowe scored.

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.53

Z. Gallen

3-5 · 5.43 ERA

A. Abbott

4-4 · 4.10 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

CIN no-vig %

50.0%

open 49.6% · +0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.5%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
52.5%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.1%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.6%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.6%

-50.9ppvs pre-game · ARI favored

Leverage

±2.9

pp · next play

low · 8/100

1-point game · 9th or later · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.11

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-107

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.5%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.8pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

ARI

★ best

+132DraftKings

edge +7.8pp · implied 40.4%

CIN

no live price

Book	ARI	CIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+132★	-174	+7.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

CIN vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Michael SorokaARI
5.3± 2.8low
Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.5± 1.8low

Hits

Jordan LawlarARI
1.1± 0.9low
Blake DunnCIN
1.1± 1.0high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Corbin CarrollARI
2.1± 2.6high
Matt McLainCIN
1.8± 2.5high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.7± 1.7high

RBIs

Jordan LawlarARI
0.6± 1.1low
Corbin CarrollARI
0.5± 0.7high
Ketel MarteARI
0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.5low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.4± 3.5low
Zac GallenARI
3.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

CIN

.691

OPS

.716

▶

.706

.306

OBP

.319

▶

.312

4.21

Runs / G

4.50

4.19

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.67

1.27

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.9

The One modelTossup

● Live

ARI

Diamondbacks

37-40

vs51.8%CIN

CIN★

Reds

39-40

ARI 48.2%win prob51.8% CIN

CIN 1475 · ARI 1481Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. Marte2B	.252	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. CarrollRF	.279	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. MorenoC	.266	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
N. Arenado3B	.243	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
I. Vargas1B	.267	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
G. PerdomoSS	.244	3	1	2	2	1	1	0
J. LawlarLF	.320	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. Groover3B	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. TroyLF	.228	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. BarrosaCF	.172	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	4	6	4	3	4	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.252

.279

.266

.243

.267

.244

.320

.200

.228

.172

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
Z. GallenSP	6.0	6	3	3	2	4	85
J. MorilloRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
K. GinkelRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	28
Team	8.0	8	3	3	2	6	127

Player

Z. GallenSP

6.0

J. MorilloRP

1.0

K. GinkelRP

1.0

Team

8.0

127

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. DunnRF	.271	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BledayLF	.266	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
S. Stewart1B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.257	2	1	2	0	0	2	0
E. SuarezDH	.215	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
N. MarteRF	.218	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
M. McLain2B	.209	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. TrevinoC	.156	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. ArroyoSS	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. SteerLF	.251	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	8	3	2	2	6