Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+25ATL

ATL

9-4

10277

TOR

7-7

WNBASun, Jun 14FinalSeriesATL leads series 3-0VegasATL -7.5

ATL · top performer

Allisha Gray

G · #15

24.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Julie Allemand

G · #22

16.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 38.9

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	32	9	4-8	0-4	1-1	+11	6	1
A. ReeseF · #5	27	15	6-19	—	3-6	+18	17	1
A. GrayG · #15	35	26	8-14	5-9	5-6	+26	3	7
J. CanadaG · #3	28	5	2-8	1-3	—	+30	5	9
R. HowardG · #10	38	24	9-18	4-11	2-2	+26	6	2
Bench
S. KoneF · #23	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	+4	1	0
M. OkotC · #11	6	0	0-1	—	—	-9	3	0
T. PaopaoG · #2	12	6	2-7	2-5	—	-5	0	0
A. NyeG · #32	1	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
I. NivarG · #21	1	0	—	—	—	+1	0	1
I. BorlaseG · #20	18	17	5-6	2-3	5-5	+22	3	1
Team		102	36-82	14-36	16-20		44	22
DNP: B. Jones

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HarrisonF · #21	19	17	6-11	2-5	3-3	-10	3	0
L. JuskaiteF · #2	26	5	2-7	0-2	1-1	-16	2	3
B. SykesG · #20	35	11	5-12	0-2	1-2	-19	2	4
M. MabreyG · #3	27	9	2-11	2-7	3-3	-12	4	2
J. AllemandG · #22	34	13	5-8	3-5	—	-24	3	6
Bench
M. CondeF · #10	25	12	4-9	1-2	3-5	-12	3	4
T. KeyF · #7	6	0	—	—	—	+1	2	2
T. FagbenleC · #14	17	7	3-5	—	1-2	-13	3	2
K. NurseG · #11	8	3	1-1	1-1	—	-8	1	0
T. PouyeG · #32	4	0	0-1	—	—	-12	1	0
Team		77	28-65	9-24	12-16		24	23
DNP: N. Sabally, K. Rice

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

36-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-65

FG %

14-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-24

16-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 3-0

Jun 14

ATL102@

TOR77today

Jun 22

TOR87@

ATL94

Jul 17

ATL111@

TOR92

Aug 11

TOR@

ATLupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

170.5

High-scoring · +5.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

ATL-29074%

TOR+23530%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -7.5↗SpreadBet ATL -7.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

170.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat TOR 102-77. A. Gray paced them with 26 PTS, 3 REB, 7 AST. ATL outscored the other side 34-14 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 37 REB · 20 AST

GS 72

Bench(6)

23 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST

GS 15

TORstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 14 REB · 15 AST

GS 35

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 10 REB · 8 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR1st Quarter · 38.9 · 11-23

+8pp→ 73% WP

Isabelle Harrison · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julie Allemand assists)

ATL2nd Quarter · 7:04 · 26-30

+8pp→ 47% WP

Isobel Borlase · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)

TOR2nd Quarter · 16.2 · 44-39

+8pp→ 23% WP

Julie Allemand · blocks Angel Reese's two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	13	34	23	32	102
TOR	25	14	20	18	77

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · TOR won 1

Howard 7

Harrison 9

Gray 11

Harrison 6

Howard 6

Mabrey 7

Gray 10

Conde 6

ATL

TOR

Shooting comparison

ATL

TOR

44%

36-82

43%

28-65

39%

14-36

3PT

38%

9-24

80%

16-20

75%

12-16

Play-by-play · 414 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 102·TOR 77
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 102·TOR 77
Q4·18.4
Temi Fagbenle makes 2-foot two point shot (Maria Conde assists)
·
ATL 102·TOR 77
Q4·34.2
Te-Hina Paopao makes 23-foot three point jumper (Indya Nivar assists)
·
ATL 102·TOR 75
Q4·36.1
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·38.5
Sika Kone misses 23-foot three point jumper
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·46.1
Madina Okot defensive rebound
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·49.2
Maria Conde misses 23-foot three point jumper
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·57.5
Aaliyah Nye lost ball turnover (Tima Pouye steals)
·
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·1:18
Indya Nivar enters the game for Isobel Borlase
·
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·1:18
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·1:18
Madina Okot enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·1:18
Tima Pouye traveling turnover
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·1:37
Allisha Gray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Rhyne Howard assists)
·
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·1:46
Sika Kone defensive rebound
ATL 96·TOR 75
Q4·1:48
Maria Conde misses two point shot
ATL 96·TOR 75
Q4·2:10
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 1
ATL 96·TOR 75
Q4·2:10
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Angel Reese
·
ATL 95·TOR 75
Q4·2:10
Sika Kone enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
ATL 95·TOR 75
Q4·2:10
Laura Juskaite enters the game for Julie Allemand
·
ATL 95·TOR 75
Q4·2:10
Julie Allemand shooting foul
ATL 95·TOR 75
Q4·2:10
Rhyne Howard makes running layup (Jordin Canada assists)
·
ATL 95·TOR 75
Q4·2:11
Maria Conde bad pass turnover (Jordin Canada steals)
·
ATL 93·TOR 75
Q4·2:13
Maria Conde offensive rebound
ATL 93·TOR 75
Q4·2:16
Tima Pouye misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 93·TOR 75
Q4·2:35
Kia Nurse enters the game for Brittney Sykes
·
ATL 93·TOR 75
Q4·2:35
Tima Pouye enters the game for Marina Mabrey
·
ATL 93·TOR 75
Q4·2:35
Tempo Full timeout
ATL 93·TOR 75
Q4·2:36
Isobel Borlase makes 24-foot three point jumper (Allisha Gray assists)
·
ATL 93·TOR 75
Q4·2:52
Temi Fagbenle makes 19-foot jumper (Marina Mabrey assists)
·
ATL 90·TOR 75

Betting line

ATL -7.5·O/U 170.5·ATL -290/TOR +235

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream went into Toronto Tempo and beat them, 102–77. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -7.5 cashed (won by 25). Total cleared the 170.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

ATL

TOR

eFG%

shooting

52.4%

50.0%

TOV%

ball control

8.1%

17.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

42.4%

14.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

19.5%

18.5%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Rhyne HowardATL · G
AST/TO2.288

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

23.8%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
34.3%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
36.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
39.3%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+215

Close price

+215

Open no-vig

30.4%

Close no-vig

30.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+15.3pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

ATL

no live price

TOR

★ best

+2000DraftKings

edge +15.3pp · implied 6.0%

Book	ATL	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	-290	+2000★	+15.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
20.8± 8.4high
Allisha GrayATL
19.8± 3.9high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
10.7± 3.2high
Aneesah MorrowTOR
8.1± 5.0high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.8± 2.8medium

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
8.1± 3.0high
Julie AllemandTOR
6.6± 3.4high
Marina MabreyTOR
3.8± 1.6high

Blocks

Rhyne HowardATL
0.8± 1.3high
Nyara SaballyTOR
0.8± 1.3high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
0.7± 0.8medium

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.4± 1.6high
Jordin CanadaATL
2.2± 0.7high
Angel ReeseATL
2.0± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Roy Gulbeyan

Referee

Marcy Williams

Referee

Teresa Stuck

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Team pages

Atlanta DreamToronto Tempo

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Mystics64Liberty86Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop