WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+25ATL

ATL

9-4

10277

TOR

7-7

WNBASun, Jun 14FinalSeriesATL leads series 1-0VegasATL -7.5

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream went into Toronto Tempo and beat them, 102–77. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -7.5 cashed (won by 25). Total cleared the 170.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

Allisha Gray

G · #15

24.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Julie Allemand

G · #22

16.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	32	9	4-8	0-4	1-1	+11	6	1
A. ReeseF · #5	27	15	6-19	—	3-6	+18	17	1
A. GrayG · #15	35	26	8-14	5-9	5-6	+26	3	7
J. CanadaG · #3	28	5	2-8	1-3	—	+30	5	9
R. HowardG · #10	38	24	9-18	4-11	2-2	+26	6	2
Bench
S. KoneF · #23	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	+4	1	0
M. OkotC · #11	6	0	0-1	—	—	-9	3	0
T. PaopaoG · #2	12	6	2-7	2-5	—	-5	0	0
A. NyeG · #32	1	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
I. NivarG · #21	1	0	—	—	—	+1	0	1
I. BorlaseG · #20	18	17	5-6	2-3	5-5	+22	3	1
Team		102	36-82	14-36	16-20		44	22
DNP: B. Jones

DNP: B. Jones

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HarrisonF · #21	19	17	6-11	2-5	3-3	-10	3	0
L. JuskaiteF · #2	26	5	2-7	0-2	1-1	-16	2	3
B. SykesG · #20	35	11	5-12	0-2	1-2	-19	2	4
M. MabreyG · #3	27	9	2-11	2-7	3-3	-12	4	2
J. AllemandG · #22	34	13	5-8	3-5	—	-24	3	6
Bench
M. CondeF · #10	25	12	4-9	1-2	3-5	-12	3	4
T. KeyF · #7	6	0	—	—	—	+1	2	2
T. FagbenleC · #14	17	7	3-5	—	1-2	-13	3	2
K. NurseG · #11	8	3	1-1	1-1	—	-8	1	0
T. PouyeG · #32	4	0	0-1	—	—	-12	1	0
Team		77	28-65	9-24	12-16		24	23
DNP: N. Sabally, K. Rice

DNP: N. Sabally, K. Rice

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

Jun 14

ATL102@

TOR77today

Jun 22

TOR@

ATLupcoming

Jul 17

ATL@

TORupcoming

Aug 11

TOR@

ATLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

170.5

High-scoring · +5.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

ATL-29074%

TOR+23530%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -7.5↗SpreadBet ATL -7.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

170.5

-1.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 38.9

ATL

A. Gray

Game leader · 35 min30+ minutes, 0 turnovers

26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST

TOR

J. Allemand

Game leader · 34 min30+ minutes, 0 turnovers

13 PTS · 3 REB · 6 AST

How it ended

ATL beat TOR 102-77. A. Gray paced them with 26 PTS, 3 REB, 7 AST. ATL outscored the other side 34-14 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 37 REB · 20 AST

GS 72

Bench(6)

23 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST

GS 15

TORstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 14 REB · 15 AST

GS 35

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 10 REB · 8 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR1st Quarter · 38.9 · 11-23

+8pp→ 73% WP

Isabelle Harrison · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julie Allemand assists)

ATL2nd Quarter · 7:04 · 26-30

+8pp→ 47% WP

Isobel Borlase · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)

TOR2nd Quarter · 16.2 · 44-39

+8pp→ 23% WP

Julie Allemand · blocks Angel Reese's two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	13	34	23	32	102
TOR	25	14	20	18	77

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · TOR won 1

Howard 7

Harrison 9

Gray 11

Harrison 6

Howard 6

Mabrey 7

Gray 10

Conde 6

ATL

TOR

Shooting comparison

ATL

TOR

44%

36-82

43%

28-65

39%

14-36

3PT

38%

9-24

80%

16-20

75%

12-16

Play-by-play · 414 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 102·TOR 77
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 102·TOR 77
Q4·18.4
Temi Fagbenle makes 2-foot two point shot (Maria Conde assists)
·
ATL 102·TOR 77
Q4·34.2
Te-Hina Paopao makes 23-foot three point jumper (Indya Nivar assists)
·
ATL 102·TOR 75
Q4·36.1
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·38.5
Sika Kone misses 23-foot three point jumper
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·46.1
Madina Okot defensive rebound
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·49.2
Maria Conde misses 23-foot three point jumper
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·57.5
Aaliyah Nye lost ball turnover (Tima Pouye steals)
·
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·1:18
Indya Nivar enters the game for Isobel Borlase
·
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·1:18
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·1:18
Madina Okot enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·1:18
Tima Pouye traveling turnover
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·1:37
Allisha Gray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Rhyne Howard assists)
·
ATL 99·TOR 75
Q4·1:46
Sika Kone defensive rebound
ATL 96·TOR 75
Q4·1:48
Maria Conde misses two point shot
ATL 96·TOR 75
Q4·2:10
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 1
ATL 96·TOR 75
Q4·2:10
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Angel Reese
·
ATL 95·TOR 75
Q4·2:10
Sika Kone enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
ATL 95·TOR 75
Q4·2:10
Laura Juskaite enters the game for Julie Allemand
·
ATL 95·TOR 75
Q4·2:10
Julie Allemand shooting foul
ATL 95·TOR 75
Q4·2:10
Rhyne Howard makes running layup (Jordin Canada assists)
·
ATL 95·TOR 75
Q4·2:11
Maria Conde bad pass turnover (Jordin Canada steals)
·
ATL 93·TOR 75
Q4·2:13
Maria Conde offensive rebound
ATL 93·TOR 75
Q4·2:16
Tima Pouye misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 93·TOR 75
Q4·2:35
Kia Nurse enters the game for Brittney Sykes
·
ATL 93·TOR 75
Q4·2:35
Tima Pouye enters the game for Marina Mabrey
·
ATL 93·TOR 75
Q4·2:35
Tempo Full timeout
ATL 93·TOR 75
Q4·2:36
Isobel Borlase makes 24-foot three point jumper (Allisha Gray assists)
·
ATL 93·TOR 75
Q4·2:52
Temi Fagbenle makes 19-foot jumper (Marina Mabrey assists)
·
ATL 90·TOR 75

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

36-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-65

FG %

14-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-24

16-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-16

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

ATL -7.5·O/U 170.5·ATL -290/TOR +235

DraftKings · via ESPN

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Rhyne HowardATL · G
AST/TO2.288

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

20.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
37.3%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
36.9%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
38.9%
P(TOR win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+215

Close price

+215

Open no-vig

30.4%

Close no-vig

30.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.8pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

ATL

no live price

TOR

★ best

+2000DraftKings

edge +13.8pp · implied 6.0%

Book	ATL	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	-290	+2000★	+13.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Brittney SykesTOR
19.5± 11.3medium
Rhyne HowardATL
18.7± 11.1low
Allisha GrayATL
17.8± 5.6medium

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
11.9± 4.2medium
Naz HillmonATL
5.2± 2.9low
Nyara SaballyTOR
5.2± 2.2low

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
6.9± 3.4medium
Marina MabreyTOR
3.7± 3.3low
Julie AllemandTOR
3.6± 2.0low

Blocks

Nyara SaballyTOR
1.1± 1.0low
Rhyne HowardATL
0.8± 1.5low
Angel ReeseATL
0.7± 0.8medium

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
3.0± 2.5low
Jordin CanadaATL
1.7± 1.6medium
Julie AllemandTOR
1.7± 1.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

ATL

league avg

TOR

43.5%

FG%

44.4

43.4%

32.9%

3PT %

33.0

32.9%

87.1

PPG

85.3

▶

88.6

19.8

Assists / G

◀

18.0

18.5

12.9

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

12.7

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Roy Gulbeyan

Referee

Marcy Williams

Referee

Teresa Stuck

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Data via ESPN · wehoop