MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Fermín reached on infield single to shortstop. Minnesota Twins challenged call on the field was upheld → win prob 16→28% STL

TOP 9TH+1MIN

STL

38-30

MIN

32-40

MLB · At bat

Top 92-10 outs

Pitcher· MIN

Y. Gomez

0.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter· STL

J. Fermin

2-4, 1 K

Live · model leanTop 9thPolls every 30s

52.6%

MIN wins · current

Pre-game: 58.2% STL

STL 4 · 5 MIN

MIN +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 9

away leadsMIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingMINBottom 8th Inning · 4-5
+27pp→ 86% WP
Kreidler · doubled to center, Keaschall scored.
SwingMINBottom 7th Inning · 4-4
+16pp→ 72% WP
Lewis · singled to left, Kreidler scored, Clemens to second, Buxton to third.
SwingSTLTop 7th Inning · 4-2
+13pp→ 82% WP
Wetherholt · singled to center, Fermín scored, Church to third.
Lead flipSTLTop 6th Inning · 3-2
+26pp→ 67% WP
Wetherholt · homered to right (380 feet), Church scored.
Lead flipMINBottom 4th Inning · 1-2
+22pp→ 68% WP
Caratini · homered to right center (411 feet), Bell scored.

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.01

M. McGreevy

3-5 · 2.99 ERA

T. Bradley

5-3 · 4.02 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

MIN no-vig %

51.0%

open 51.1% · -0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.6%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
44.7%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.5%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

97.2%

+52.5ppvs pre-game · MIN favored

Leverage

±3.6

pp · next play

low · 14/100

1-point game · 9th or later · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.43

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-103

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.5%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.7pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

STL

★ best

-103DraftKings

edge +9.7pp · implied 48.5%

MIN

no live price

Book	STL	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	-103★	-117	+9.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

MIN vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.3± 2.9medium
Taj BradleyMIN
6.1± 3.0low
Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 3.4low

Hits

Jordan WalkerSTL
1.5± 0.8high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.3± 0.5high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.8± 1.6high
Byron BuxtonMIN
2.7± 2.9high
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Jordan WalkerSTL
1.1± 1.3high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.0± 1.1high
Josh BellMIN
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.7± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

MIN

.723

OPS

.716

.717

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.318

4.62

Runs / G

4.50

4.62

4.14

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.87

1.34

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

The One modelEdge

● Live

STL★

Cardinals

41-31

vs58.2%STL

MIN

Twins

40-43

STL 58.2%win prob41.8% MIN

STL 1522 · MIN 1461Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Wetherholt2B	.256	4	1	2	3	1	0	1
I. HerreraDH	.267	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Burleson1B	.287	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
J. WalkerRF	.294	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
L. NootbaarLF	.219	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Jordan1B	.417	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. TorresLF	.238	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FerminLF	.278	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
N. ChurchLF	.259	2	1	2	0	0	1	0
M. WinnSS	.227	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	4	8	4	2	2	10

Player

AVG

RBI

.256

.267

.287

.294

.219

.417

.238

.278

.259

.227

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. McGreevySP	6.0	7	2	2	2	2	89
J. RomeroRP	0.1	3	2	2	1	1	19
G. SorianoRP	1.2	3	1	1	0	3	34
Team	8.0	13	5	5	3	6	142

Player

M. McGreevySP

6.0

J. RomeroRP

0.1

G. SorianoRP

1.2

Team

8.0

142

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. LarnachLF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. BuxtonCF	.276	5	0	3	1	0	0	2
K. Clemens1B	.251	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
R. Lewis3B	.211	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
J. BellDH	.232	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.215	3	1	1	2	1	1	0
B. LeeSS	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Gray3B	.254	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.245	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
R. KreidlerCF	.246	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
A. MartinRF	.239	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. ArciaSS	.271	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	5	13	5	1	3	6