WSH
5-6
NY
9-4
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Shakira AustinWSH · CDRB%.28195
Jonquel JonesNY · CDRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · GeFG%.62993
Pauline AstierNY · GTS%.65692
Breanna StewartNY · FUSG%.28091
WSH · top performer
Michaela Onyenwere
F · #12
12
Pts
4
Reb
1
Ast
NY · top performer
Jonquel Jones
C · #35
18
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at New York Liberty · live
WNBA · Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | +/- | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 18 | 12 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| 21 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-2 | — | -13 | 4 | 0 | |
| 28 | 6 | 2-10 | — | 2-4 | -12 | 6 | 3 | |
| 27 | 12 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 5-6 | -19 | 2 | 1 | |
| 16 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-4 | — | -5 | 2 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 17 | 4 | 2-2 | — | 0-1 | -15 | 4 | 1 | |
| 21 | 8 | 3-10 | 2-5 | — | -21 | 3 | 0 | |
| 17 | 4 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 1-4 | -15 | 2 | 4 | |
| Team | 50 | 18-56 | 5-18 | 9-16 | 27 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Iriafen, R. Harmon, L. Olsen, D. Littlepage-Buggs, C. Prosper | ||||||||
DNP: K. Iriafen, R. Harmon, L. Olsen, D. Littlepage-Buggs, C. Prosper
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | +/- | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 25 | 11 | 4-11 | 1-2 | 2-2 | +16 | 11 | 1 | |
| 21 | 8 | 3-7 | 2-5 | — | +3 | 2 | 2 | |
| 22 | 18 | 6-9 | 3-5 | 3-3 | +11 | 3 | 1 | |
| 13 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-4 | — | +3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 16 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | +7 | 1 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 16 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-1 | +13 | 2 | 5 | |
| 11 | 6 | 2-3 | 2-3 | — | +9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 2 | — | — | 2-2 | +6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 4 | 2-4 | — | — | +14 | 2 | 1 | |
| 22 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | +18 | 2 | 2 | |
| Team | 70 | 24-51 | 11-25 | 11-12 | 24 | 18 | ||
| DNP: R. Carrera, R. Allen | ||||||||
DNP: R. Carrera, R. Allen
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
32
FG %
47
12
Ast
18
Season series
NY leads series 1-0
NY98@WSH93WSH@NYtodayWSH@NYupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NY -13.5
Between 10 and —
2.0pt· 6.3h
Total
167.5
Standard · +2.5 vs avg
Moneyline
WSH+57515%NY-85089%150· 6.3h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
13.5
+3.0 since open
Total
167.5
+1.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
7:08 - 4thMystics Full timeout
WSHM. Onyenwere
FLeading · 7:08 - 4th · 18 min
12 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 27 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
NYJ. Jones
CLeading · 7:08 - 4th · 22 min
18 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 33 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
How it's going
NY lead WSH 70-50 (7:08 - 4th). J. Jones led with 18 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST.
Win probability
NY vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
34 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST
GS 13
Bench(3)
16 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
GS 11
NYstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
49 PTS · 18 REB · 10 AST
GS 44
Bench(5)
21 PTS · 6 REB · 8 AST
GS 14
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 13 | 15 | 22 | 0 | 50 |
| NY | 20 | 16 | 27 | 7 | 70 |
Period scoring
WSH won 0 · NY won 4
Q1
McMahon 3
Johannes 6
Q2
Citron 4
Stewart 10
Q3
Onyenwere 7
Jones 12
Q4
Jones 3
Shooting comparison
32%
18-56
FG
47%
24-51
28%
5-18
3PT
44%
11-25
56%
9-16
FT
92%
11-12
Play-by-play · 330 plays
- Q4·7:08
Mystics Full timeout
WSH 50·NY 70
- Q4·7:09
Jonquel Jones makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pauline Astier assists)
·
WSH 50·NY 70
- Q4·7:16
Pauline Astier defensive rebound
WSH 50·NY 67
- Q4·7:21
Georgia Amoore misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
WSH 50·NY 67
- Q4·7:40
Jonquel Jones lost ball turnover (Angela Dugalic steals)
·
WSH 50·NY 67
- Q4·7:54
Angela Dugalic bad pass turnover (Rebekah Gardner steals)
·
WSH 50·NY 67
- Q4·7:59
Pauline Astier makes driving layup
WSH 50·NY 67
- Q4·8:08
Jonquel Jones enters the game for Betnijah Laney-Hamilton
·
WSH 50·NY 65
- Q4·8:08
Marine Johannes enters the game for Han Xu
·
WSH 50·NY 65
- Q4·8:08
Pauline Astier enters the game for Sabrina Ionescu
·
WSH 50·NY 65
- Q4·8:08
Liberty defensive team rebound
WSH 50·NY 65
- Q4·8:11
Angela Dugalic misses 24-foot three point jumper
WSH 50·NY 65
- Q4·8:32
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton out of bounds bad pass turnover
WSH 50·NY 65
- Q4·8:53
Cotie McMahon enters the game for Michaela Onyenwere
·
WSH 50·NY 65
- Q4·8:53
Mystics Full timeout
WSH 50·NY 65
- Q4·8:53
Angela Dugalic out of bounds bad pass turnover
WSH 50·NY 65
- Q4·8:57
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton lost ball turnover (Angela Dugalic steals)
·
WSH 50·NY 65
- Q4·9:14
Sabrina Ionescu defensive rebound
WSH 50·NY 65
- Q4·9:19
Georgia Amoore misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
WSH 50·NY 65
- Q4·9:28
Rebekah Gardner double dribble turnover
WSH 50·NY 65
- Q4·9:30
Shakira Austin bad pass turnover (Han Xu steals)
·
WSH 50·NY 65
- Q4·9:47
Rebekah Gardner makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 50·NY 65
- Q4·9:47
Rebekah Gardner makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 50·NY 64
- Q4·9:47
Georgia Amoore shooting foul
WSH 50·NY 63
+1pp
- Q4·10:00
Angela Dugalic enters the game for Lauren Betts
·
WSH 50·NY 63
- Q4·10:00
Georgia Amoore enters the game for Alicia Florez
·
WSH 50·NY 63
- Q4·10:00
Breanna Stewart enters the game for Leonie Fiebich
·
WSH 50·NY 63
- Q3·0.0
End of the 3rd Quarter
WSH 50·NY 63
- Q3·0.1
Mystics offensive team rebound
WSH 50·NY 63
- Q3·0.4
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton blocks Alicia Florez 's 20-foot pullup jump shot
·
WSH 50·NY 63
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
NY
Home
18-56
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
24-51
32
FG %
47
5-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-25
9-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-12
12
Assists
18
14
Turnovers
15
Betting line
NY -13.5·O/U 167.5·WSH +575/NY -850
83.8%
NY wins · current
Pre-game: 73.0% NY
WSH 50 · 70 NY
NY +20
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q4Ensemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
72.6%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
76.2%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
74.9%
P(NY win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
76.6%
P(NY win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.72 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Live · model intelligence
calibrated · 90d
Win prob · home
99.0%
Leverage
±2.5
pp · next play
low · 5/100
Mostly decided
Live edge
—
No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.
Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.
Receipts
Line shop
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+12.8pp
best edge · WSH · DraftKings
WSH
★ bestedge +12.8pp · implied 14.2%
NY
no live price
| Book | WSH | NY | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +575★ | -850 | +12.8 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player props
Player projections
NY vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY19.3± 8.0medium
- Sonia CitronWSH16.6± 10.0low
- Shakira AustinWSH14.9± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Jonquel JonesNY9.7± 4.1low
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.7± 6.2low
- Breanna StewartNY8.4± 1.9medium
Assists
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.8± 2.9low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.1low
- Marine JohannesNY3.4± 4.6low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.3± 1.9low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.3± 1.6low
- Breanna StewartNY0.6± 0.6medium
Steals
- Breanna StewartNY1.4± 1.6medium
- Sonia CitronWSH1.3± 0.7low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.1± 1.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team rate stats
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
NY
45.5%
FG%
44.4
45.7%
29.4%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.8%
83.0
PPG
85.4
▶88.6
19.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
16.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.5
On the call · WNBA
3 officials
Referee
Tiara Cruse
Referee
Charles Watson
Referee
Sarah Williams
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.