MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Pages homered to left (394 feet), Ohtani scored. → win prob 81→89% LAD

BOT 7TH+8LAD

LAA

24-40

LAD

41-23

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 974 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 70-02 outs

Pitcher· LAA

R. Zeferjahn

0.2 IP, 1 K, 0 ER

Batter· LAD

D. Rushing

0-2

LastRyan Zeferjahn pitches to Dalton Rushing

Live · model leanBot 7thPolls every 30s

89.2%

LAD wins · current

Pre-game: 78.9% LAD

LAA 1 · 9 LAD

LAD +8

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsLAD leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingLADBottom 1st Inning · 1-2
+8pp→ 89% WP
Pages · homered to left (394 feet), Ohtani scored.
SwingLAATop 1st Inning · 1-0
+7pp→ 24% WP
Peraza · tripled to center, Meckler scored.

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.09

J. Kochanowicz

2-4 · 5.23 ERA

Y. Yamamoto

5-4 · 2.86 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

74.2%

open 73.3% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

80.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
75.6%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
78.4%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
75.8%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+23.4ppvs pre-game · LAD favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 4/100

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.67

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-328

Close price

-362

Open no-vig

73.3%

Close no-vig

75.0%

Market steamed in our direction

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

LAD vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Jose SorianoLAA
6.5± 2.5low
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.3± 3.4low

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.4± 1.2high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.3± 1.0high
Andy PagesLAD
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 2.1high
Andy PagesLAD
2.3± 2.7high
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.3± 2.2high

RBIs

Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.1± 2.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
0.9± 0.7high
Wade MecklerLAA
0.8± 1.8low

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.8± 3.9low
Jack KochanowiczLAA
3.2± 2.5low
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One model★ Lock

● Live

LAA

Angels

26-44

vs78.9%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

47-28

LAA 21.1%win prob78.9% LAD

LAD 1594 · LAA 1422Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Z. NetoSS	.229	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. TroutCF	.232	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. MecklerLF	.357	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
O. Peraza2B	.278	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
N. Schanuel1B	.258	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AdellRF	.233	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Madrigal3B	.350	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Walton3B	.256	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. O'HoppeC	.194	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SiriLF	.296	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		23	1	2	1	0	0	4

Player

AVG

RBI

.229

.232

.357

.278

.258

.233

.350

.256

.194

.296

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. KochanowiczSP	0.1	6	7	6	1	1	38
B. SuterRP	2.2	2	2	2	0	2	55
S. Natera Jr.SP	2.0	0	0	0	1	3	31
D. PomeranzRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	9
R. ZeferjahnRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	14
Team	6.2	9	9	8	3	7	148

Player

0.1

2.2

2.0

1.0

0.2

Team

6.2

148

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. OhtaniDH	.300	4	2	2	2	1	0	1
A. PagesCF	.285	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
F. Freeman1B	.278	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. BettsSS	.183	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. Muncy3B	.259	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
R. WardLF	.278	4	1	1	2	0	0	2
A. CallLF	.264	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
D. RushingC	.260	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. Freeland2B	.244	3	1	0	1	0	0	1
M. RojasSS	.258	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Espinal3B	.208	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	9	9	7	2	3	7