MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Bichette singled to center, Benge to second. → win prob 24→32% NYM

MID 8TH+1SD

NYM

28-35

32-30

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 975 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Mid 80-00 outs

Pitcher

—

Batter

—

LastMiddle of the 8th inning

Live · model leanMid 8thPolls every 30s

58.4%

SD wins · current

Pre-game: 56.1% SD

NYM 2 · 3 SD

SD +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8

away leadsSD leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingNYMTop 8th Inning · 2-3
+9pp→ 24% WP
Benge · singled to right.
Lead flipSDBottom 7th Inning · 2-3
+55pp→ 82% WP
Fermin · homered to left (366 feet), Song scored.
Lead flipNYMTop 7th Inning · 2-1
+25pp→ 71% WP
Semien · homered to left center (394 feet).
Lead flipSDBottom 3rd Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 53% WP
Tatis Jr. · singled to right, Song scored.
SwingNYMTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 67% WP
Baty · singled to center, Semien scored, Ewing to third.

Petco Park · San Diego, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 11.37

N. McLean

3-4 · 4.21 ERA

G. Canning

0-4 · 7.16 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SD no-vig %

47.4%

open 47.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.2%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
56.5%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.0%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.3%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.44 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

90.5%

+34.0ppvs pre-game · SD favored

Leverage

±5.7

pp · next play

medium · 34/100

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.43

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.4pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

NYM

no live price

★ best

-107DraftKings

edge +7.4pp · implied 48.7%

Book	NYM	SD	Best edge
DraftKings	-120	-107★	+7.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

SD vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.5± 2.9low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.6± 3.2low
Michael KingSD
5.4± 2.7low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.1high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.0± 1.4high
Carson BengeNYM
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
1.9± 2.0high
Carson BengeNYM
1.8± 2.7high
Jared YoungNYM
1.7± 2.5medium

RBIs

Juan SotoNYM
0.7± 1.3high
Carson BengeNYM
0.6± 1.1high
Manny MachadoSD
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.7± 2.6low
Nolan McLeanNYM
2.7± 2.9low
Yu DarvishSD
2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

NYM

Mets

30-38

vs56.1%SD

SD★

Padres

33-31

NYM 43.9%win prob56.1% SD

SD 1500 · NYM 1478Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. BengeRF	.248	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Bichette3B	.230	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. SotoLF	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Young1B	.294	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Semien2B	.223	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
A.J. EwingCF	.259	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. Vientos1B	.215	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Baty3B	.234	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
L. TorrensC	.226	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		28	2	6	2	1	2	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.248

.230

.280

.294

.223

.259

.215

.234

.226

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
N. McLeanSP	6.0	3	1	1	3	5	101
A. WarrenRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	18
Team	7.0	5	3	3	3	5	119

Player

N. McLeanSP

6.0

101

A. WarrenRP

1.0

Team

7.0

119

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.274	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
J. MerrillCF	.201	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. France1B	.280	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Machado3B	.173	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Sheets1B	.229	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. BogaertsSS	.226	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. AndujarDH	.254	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Song2B	.194	2	2	2	0	0	1	0
F. FerminC	.133	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
Team		24	3	5	3	1	3	5