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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PHI
PHI

PHI

5-3

2
1
COL

COL

2-6

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
39,718 attended

Line movement

13 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

COL no-vig %

30.4%

open 30.4%

+2.0+1.0COL SPREADO/U 10.5O/U 9.5TOTAL34.4%26.4%COL NO-VIG %May 3, 8 PMMay 28, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 2 · COL 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI1000100002
COL0010000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 5, 26sim 97
    221
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 91
    251
    27(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 90
    2210
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 86
    181
    27(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 85
    253
    27(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 83
    2510
    27(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+214

Close price

+214

Open no-vig

30.4%

Close no-vig

30.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, Apr 4·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -267

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into Colorado Rockies and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

COL +1.5 cashed (PHI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 10.0 by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Trea Turner

Trea Turner

SS

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Brett Sullivan

Brett Sullivan

C

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI5-3
2
1
COL2-6
PHI5-3·COL2-6
PHI

PHI

5-3

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
2-44121012
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44011012
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-44000000
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.632
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT28.688
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-44000003
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT28.175
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-33000011
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
1-44010000
Team7-34342720410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
6.25110110
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
0.1000110
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0100000
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0000010
Team9.06111130
COL

COL

2-6

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.148
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
0-33000002
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
0-44000003
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT27.867
J. BeckJ. Beck★LF
0-33000001
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-44000003
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-22110010
SPRINT26.326
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT27.251
B. SullivanB. Sullivan★C
2-33021001
SPRINT2872
M. MoniakM. MoniakLF
0-11000000
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield1B
0-11000000
Team6-32321610113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BernardinoB. Bernardino★RP
0.2111200
J. HergetJ. HergetRP
1.1000020
C. DollanderC. DollanderSP
4.1411160
J. HillJ. HillRP
0.2000110
J. MejiaJ. MejiaRP
1.0100010
V. VodnikV. VodnikRP
1.0100000
Team9.07224100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

COL

  • V. Vodnik
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      55%·98.3 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      18%·93.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      18%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·92.6 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      29%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.3 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Hill
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      40%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·98.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

6

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Apr 3PHIPHI10@COLCOL1
Apr 5PHIPHI2@COLCOL1today
Apr 5PHIPHI1@COLCOL4

Season series

PHI leads series 2-0

Apr 3PHIPHI10@COLCOL1
Apr 5PHIPHI2@COLCOL1today
Apr 5PHIPHI1@COLCOL4
May 8COLCOL9@PHIPHI7
May 9COLCOL3@PHIPHI9
May 10COLCOL0@PHIPHI6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI-26773%
COLCOL+21432%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 5th Inning

PHIPHI
T. Turner

T. Turner

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.100 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 11 K · 1 ER · 5 H

COLCOL
B. Sullivan

B. Sullivan

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

C. Dollander

C. Dollander

SP

Top reliever

4.1 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PHI beat COL 2-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

COL vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 71% WP

Schwarber · doubled to left, Turner scored.

PHITop 5th Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 76% WP

Turner · doubled to left, Marsh scored, Crawford to third.

COLBottom 7th Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 44% WP

Tovar · singled to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI1000100002
COL0010000001

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · COL won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Schwarber 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Sullivan 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Turner 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

PHI
COL

Play-by-play · 554 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 2·COL 1

  2. B9

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  3. B9

    Castro struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  10. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Willi Castro

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  11. B9

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  12. B9

    Rumfield grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

    −8pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  14. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to TJ Rumfield

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  15. B9

    Rumfield hit for Beck

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  16. B9

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  17. B9

    Tovar grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

    −8pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  19. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Ezequiel Tovar

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  20. B9

    Duran relieved Keller

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  21. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PHI 2·COL 1

  22. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PHI 2·COL 1

  23. T9

    · ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  24. T9

    Schwarber fouled out to first.

    · ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  27. T9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    · ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  28. T9

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

  29. T9

    Turner singled to center.

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

    −1pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 2·COL 1

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

COL

Home

2

Runs

1

7

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

9

TB

6

0

HR

0

4

BB

1

10

K

13

19

LOB

13

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 10·PHI -267/COL +214

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

COL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    6.0± 2.4low

Hits

  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.6± 1.4high
  • Trea TurnerPHI
    1.6± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.9± 1.6high
  • Bryson StottPHI
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.3± 3.1low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    32.7%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    33.1%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    32.3%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brenton DoyleCOL · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175