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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3MIL
MIL

MIL

28-18

5
2
CHC

CHC

29-20

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
38,190 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 0.0 · +8.0

CHC no-vig %

48.5%

open 48.9% · -0.4

+2.0-0.5CHC SPREADO/U 8.5O/U -0.5TOTAL53.0%44.5%CHC NO-VIG %May 18, 5 PMMay 19, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 5 · CHC 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL1020000205
CHC0000000202

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 58-35
62%Last 30 · 316-197
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.0pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

MIL

★ best
-128DraftKings

edge +8.0pp · implied 52.6%

CHC

no live price

BookMILCHCBest edge
DraftKings-128★-102+8.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 20, 26sim 96
    85
    16(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 30, 26sim 91
    155
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 90
    193
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 89
    84
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 89
    89
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 89
    192
    24(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, May 19·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 3-0/VegasMIL -125

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 5–2.

MIL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total pushed exactly on 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1G. MitchellMIL+25.6pp
  2. 2M. BuschCHC−23.0pp
  3. 3B. BrownCHC−21.8pp

MIL · top performer

MIL
Brice Turang

Brice Turang

2B

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner

2B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL28-18
5
2
CHC29-20
MIL28-18·CHC29-20
MIL

MIL

28-18

5
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
1-551100024.1
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
3-4423211115.3
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-5511000013.2
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
1-550100032.8
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
1-4401101025.6
SPRINT29.798
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
2-550210014.1
SPRINT2744
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-4400000011.1
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-440100000.8
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
1-331100106.5
Team11-39395114137—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
J. MisiorowskiJ. Misiorowski★SP
6.030018015.4
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.00000204.6
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
0.232112010.4
C. PatrickC. PatrickRP
0.10000000.0
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.00000103.5
Team9.06212130—
CHC

CHC

29-20

2
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-330210103.1
SPRINT28.278
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-4400000223.0
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-4400000216.4
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-330000121.0
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-440100021.4
SPRINT27.457
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
0-330000016.1
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-440100023.7
SPRINT27.867
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-441100023.7
SPRINT29.294
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
1-331100007.1
SPRINT257
M. ConfortoM. ConfortoDH
0-110000000.0
C. KellyC. KellyC
0-110000000.3
Team6-34342610213—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
B. BrownB. Brown★RP
5.073326021.8
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
1.02000002.7
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.01000001.2
T. ThorntonT. ThorntonRP
1.01221015.0
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.00000108.6
Team9.01155371—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • J. Misiorowski
    74 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      57%·99.9 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      34%·94.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      9%·87.8 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    26 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      62%·97.8 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      15%·84.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      12%·91.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      12%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Megill
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      53%·97.4 mph·40% whiff
    • KC
      47%·87.2 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      64%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·87.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Patrick
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      67%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      33%·90.5 mph·100% whiff

CHC

  • B. Brown
    82 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      46%·96.7 mph·16% whiff
    • KC
      38%·87.8 mph·59% whiff
    • SI
      13%·97.4 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      2%·89.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·88.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      9%·76.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      9%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Thornton
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      60%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      30%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·81.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      5%·81.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Webb
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      81%·94.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Maton
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FC
      67%·90.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      25%·76.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

6

5

Runs

2

2

Errors

1

Current series

MIL wins series 3-0

May 18MILMIL9@CHCCHC3
May 19MILMIL5@CHCCHC2today
May 20MILMIL5@CHCCHC0

Season series

MIL leads series 2-0

May 18MILMIL9@CHCCHC3
May 19MILMIL5@CHCCHC2today
May 20MILMIL5@CHCCHC0
Jun 26CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming
Jun 27CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming
Jun 28CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming
Aug 31MILMIL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 1MILMIL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 2MILMIL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 3MILMIL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 7CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming
Sep 8CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming
Sep 9CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.3h

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

↗8.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

MILMIL-12556%
CHCCHC+10449%

↗2· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.0

+8.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 1st Inning

MILMIL
B. Turang

B. Turang

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

CHCCHC
N. Hoerner

N. Hoerner

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

B. Brown

B. Brown

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat CHC 5-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 60% WP

Mitchell · singled to right, Turang scored, Contreras to third.

MILTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 72% WP

Mitchell · walked.

MILTop 9th Inning · 5-2
+9pp→ 97% WP

Yelich · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL1020000205
CHC0000000202

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · CHC won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Mitchell 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Mitchell 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
2

Inn 8

Turang 2

Hoerner 1

0
0

Inn 9

MIL
CHC

Play-by-play · 576 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  2. B9

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  3. B9

    Kelly grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  10. B9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Carson Kelly

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  11. B9

    Kelly hit for Amaya

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  12. B9

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  13. B9

    Crow-Armstrong grounded out to second.

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

    −1pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  16. B9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  17. B9

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  18. B9

    Dansby Swanson challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Dansby Swanson called out on strikes.

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

    −2pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  25. B9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Dansby Swanson

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  26. B9

    Uribe relieved Patrick

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  29. T9

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

  30. T9

    Bauers lined out to right.

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 2

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

5

Runs

2

11

Hits

6

2

Errors

1

15

TB

7

1

HR

0

3

BB

2

7

K

13

25

LOB

22

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 7·MIL -125/CHC +104

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.43

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-117

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

CHC vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.6low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    1.8± 2.4high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    41.2%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    40.9%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    41.3%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278