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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6LAA
LAA

LAA

22-35

7
1
DET

DET

22-35

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
29,670 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.5 · -0.5

DET no-vig %

54.4%

open 54.2% · +0.2

+2.0-2.0DET SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 8.5TOTAL58.4%49.2%DET NO-VIG %MODEL 53.8%May 27, 4 PMMay 28, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 7 · DET 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0000300227
DET0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 58-35
62%Last 30 · 316-197
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.1pp

best edge · LAA · DraftKings

LAA

★ best
+212DraftKings

edge +16.1pp · implied 30.1%

DET

no live price

BookLAADETBest edge
DraftKings+212★-291+16.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 27, 26sim 95
    30
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 90
    214
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 89
    215
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 89
    213
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 89
    48
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 89
    43
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, May 28·Final/SeriesLAA win series 2-1/VegasDET -136

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAA +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1S. RiveroLAA+32.2pp
  2. 2D. WaltonLAA+26.5pp
  3. 3J. FlahertyDET−19.5pp

LAA · top performer

LAA
Donovan Walton

Donovan Walton

3B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Wenceel Perez

Wenceel Perez

RF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA22-35
7
1
DET22-35
LAA22-35·DET22-35
LAA

LAA

22-35

7
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
2-4412101015.0
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
2-331220204.6
SPRINT28.688
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
1-441120014.7
SPRINT26.632
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-440110038.2
W. MecklerW. Meckler★LF
0-440000022.1
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-441100019.3
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-220000026.2
S. RiveroS. Rivero★C
1-4411100232.2
D. WaltonD. Walton★3B
3-4423000026.5
O. PerazaO. Peraza2B
0-220000010.9
Team11-353571170312—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
G. RodriguezG. Rodriguez★SP
5.021125115.7
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.000001011.4
J. FerminJ. FerminRP
1.00001109.8
SPRINT27.148
S. BachmanS. BachmanRP
1.01002103.0
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.00002100.2
Team9.0311791—
DET

DET

22-35

1
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-2200002011.5
SPRINT28.381
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
0-440000019.3
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-3300001115.5
SPRINT27.765
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-4401000214.0
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-4400000210.3
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-220000218.9
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
0-4400000115.6
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
2-331211103.6
SPRINT27.969
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
0-110000111.2
G. WorkmanG. Workman3B
0-110000003.0
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-110000000.1
Team3-2929131179—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
5.263319019.5
D. SommersD. SommersRP
0.10000100.8
B. HanifeeB. HanifeeRP
1.01000103.1
R. VanascoR. VanascoRP
2.044421012.2
Team9.011773120—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • G. Rodriguez
    88 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      57%·96.2 mph·19% whiff
    • CH
      18%·83.8 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      16%·80.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      9%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Zeferjahn
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      41%·97.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      23%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Bachman
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      48%·89.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      38%·92.6 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      14%·99.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Fermin
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      54%·89.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      31%·96.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·93.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·96.4 mph·— whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    9 pitches·56% CSW
    • FF
      89%·91.9 mph·75% whiff
    • KC
      11%·84.5 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    91 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      42%·93.5 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      33%·85.8 mph·38% whiff
    • KC
      19%·79.1 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      4%·90.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      2%·83.3 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Vanasco
    47 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      57%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      26%·85.2 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      17%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hanifee
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.4 mph·— whiff
  • D. Sommers
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      60%·93.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·82.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

3

7

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAA win series 2-1

May 26LAALAA10@DETDET6
May 27LAALAA0@DETDET4
May 28LAALAA7@DETDET1today

Season series

LAA lead series 2-1

May 26LAALAA10@DETDET6
May 27LAALAA0@DETDET4
May 28LAALAA7@DETDET1today
Jul 18DETDET@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 19DETDET@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 19DETDET@LAALAAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+11347%
DETDET-13658%

↘6· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 5th Inning

LAALAA
D. Walton

D. Walton

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.500 OPS

G. Rodriguez

G. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

DETDET
W. Perez

W. Perez

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAA beat DET 7-1. Neto's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 75% WP

Pérez homered to right center (363 feet).

LAATop 5th Inning · 2-1
+19pp→ 64% WP

Neto · doubled to left, Rivero scored, Walton to third.

LAABottom 7th Inning · 3-1
+10pp→ 85% WP

Vierling · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, McKinstry out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0000300227
DET0100000001

Period scoring

LAA won 3 · DET won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

3
0

Inn 5

Rivero 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Grissom 1

2
0

Inn 9

Trout 2

LAA
DET

Play-by-play · 597 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAA 7·DET 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  3. B9

    Jones popped out to second.

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  7. B9

    Ryan Zeferjahn pitches to Jahmai Jones

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  8. B9

    Jones hit for Vanasco

    ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  9. B9

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  10. B9

    Pérez walked, McKinstry to second.

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  16. B9

    Ryan Zeferjahn pitches to Wenceel Perez

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  17. B9

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  18. B9

    Vierling struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  22. B9

    Ryan Zeferjahn pitches to Matt Vierling

    · ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  23. B9

    ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  24. B9

    McKinstry walked.

    ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 7·DET 1

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

DET

Home

7

Runs

1

11

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

16

TB

7

0

HR

1

3

BB

7

12

K

9

9

LOB

15

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 8.5·LAA +113/DET -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

DET vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.9± 4.2low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Oswald PerazaLAA
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Donovan WaltonLAA
    1.0± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.9± 2.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Oswald PerazaLAA
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    0.9± 1.9high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    0.9± 2.1low
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.2± 2.5low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    3.1± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    54.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.1%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278