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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1COL
COL

COL

11-16

4
3
NYM

NYM

9-17

Citi Field · Queens, New York
36,233 attended

Line movement

33 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

NYM no-vig %

64.5%

open 64.5%

-1.0-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL68.5%60.5%NYM NO-VIG %MODEL 63.0%May 2, 9 AMJun 2, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

COL 4 · NYM 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0000112004
NYM0100000203

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 58-35
62%Last 30 · 316-197
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+169

Close price

+169

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 16, 26sim 88
    271
    18(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 88
    273
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 88
    273
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 87
    276
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 87
    273
    21(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 86
    32
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

NYM vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low
  • Christian ScottNYM
    5.4± 3.2low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.9± 2.7high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.7± 2.5high
  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Tanner GordonCOL
    2.8± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.6%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    61.8%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.2%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.4%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Fri, Apr 24·Final/SeriesCOL wins series 3-0/VegasNYM -207

Recap · MLB

Colorado Rockies went into New York Mets and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

COL +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total pushed exactly on 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1R. MauricioNYM+38.4pp
  2. 2S. ManaeaNYM−37.0pp
  3. 3F. PeraltaNYM−36.2pp

COL · top performer

COL
Ezequiel Tovar

Ezequiel Tovar

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Ronny Mauricio

Ronny Mauricio

SS

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
COL11-16
4
3
NYM9-17
COL11-16·NYM9-17
COL

COL

11-16

4
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
1-550100020.6
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
1-4411001224.3
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
1-3311101115.8
SPRINT24.85
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
1-440100016.5
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-5501200213.2
SPRINT26.326
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
1-4411001123.8
SPRINT27.251
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
2-440200029.0
SPRINT27.867
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★CF
1-330110016.2
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
1-331100128.5
J. BeckJ. BeckLF
0-110000011.5
Team10-363641040415—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
M. LorenzenM. Lorenzen★SP
7.071103010.3
J. HillJ. HillRP
0.142200032.5
A. SenzatelaA. SenzatelaRP
1.200001019.5
Team9.01133040—
NYM

NYM

9-17

3
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-4411000025.1
SPRINT25.716
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-4401000016.8
SPRINT25.513
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-440100018.5
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
2-4412200017.9
SPRINT26.735
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
2-440200015.5
SPRINT25.513
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-4400000017.0
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
1-4401000013.3
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
1-330100017.4
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
2-3312000038.4
M. MelendezM. MelendezDH
0-110000013.7
Team11-35353112004—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
5.272238036.2
S. ManaeaS. ManaeaRP
3.132217037.0
Team9.010444150—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

  • M. Lorenzen
    90 pitches·23% CSW
    • CU
      20%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.7 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      17%·90.1 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      13%·83.1 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      10%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hill
    12 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      42%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Senzatela
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • CH
      30%·90.3 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      20%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.5 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      10%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·98.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      10%·96.1 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • F. Peralta
    95 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      61%·94.5 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      27%·87.7 mph·44% whiff
    • SL
      7%·82.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CS
      2%·76.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      2%·80.6 mph·— whiff
  • S. Manaea
    61 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      56%·90.3 mph·30% whiff
    • ST
      39%·74.4 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      3%·83.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      2%·88.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

11

4

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

COL wins series 3-0

Apr 24COLCOL4@NYMNYM3today
Apr 25COLCOL0@NYMNYM0
Apr 26COLCOL3@NYMNYM1
Apr 26COLCOL3@NYMNYM0

Season series

COL leads series 1-0

Apr 24COLCOL4@NYMNYM3today
Apr 25COLCOL0@NYMNYM0
Apr 26COLCOL3@NYMNYM1
Apr 26COLCOL3@NYMNYM0
May 4NYMNYM4@COLCOL2
May 6NYMNYM0@COLCOL0
May 7NYMNYM10@COLCOL5
May 7NYMNYM2@COLCOL6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+16937%
NYMNYM-20767%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 33 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 6th Inning

COLCOL
E. Tovar

E. Tovar

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

M. Lorenzen

M. Lorenzen

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 7 H

NYMNYM
R. Mauricio

R. Mauricio

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

How it ended

COL beat NYM 4-3. McCarthy's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
COLTop 6th Inning · 2-1
+24pp→ 69% WP

McCarthy · doubled to center, Karros scored, Tovar to third.

COLBottom 6th Inning · 2-1
+15pp→ 62% WP

Alvarez · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Soto out at second.

COLTop 9th Inning · 4-3
+23pp→ 82% WP

Freeman · lined out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0000112004
NYM0100000203

Period scoring

COL won 3 · NYM won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Semien 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Rumfield 1

1
0

Inn 6

McCarthy 1

2
0

Inn 7

Johnston 2

0
2

Inn 8

Baty 2

0
0

Inn 9

COL
NYM

Play-by-play · 545 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    COL 4·NYM 3

  2. B9

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  3. B9

    Melendez struck out swinging.

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  9. B9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to MJ Melendez

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  10. B9

    Melendez hit for Taylor

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  11. B9

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  12. B9

    Benge lined out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

    −7pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  14. B9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to Carson Benge

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  15. B9

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  16. B9

    Semien flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

    −9pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  19. B9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to Marcus Semien

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  20. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    COL 4·NYM 3

  21. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    COL 4·NYM 3

  22. T9

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  23. T9

    Karros struck out swinging.

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

    +0.5pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 11 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 10 : Ball 3

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 4·NYM 3

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

4

Runs

3

10

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

11

TB

12

0

HR

0

4

BB

0

15

K

4

23

LOB

14

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7·COL +169/NYM -207

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · CF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872