MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6COL

COL

24-38

LAA

23-39

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 974 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

26,426 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

LAA no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.0%

ensemble · LAA favored

Elo Static
58.5%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.0%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.5%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

COL

no live price

LAA

no live price

Book	COL	LAA	Best edge
DraftKings	+135	-163	+0.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAA vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.9± 4.2low
Jose SorianoLAA
6.5± 2.5low
Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.3± 1.3low

Hits

Troy JohnstonCOL
1.2± 0.7high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.1± 1.2high
Willi CastroCOL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.3± 2.4high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.9± 2.4high
Zach NetoLAA
1.9± 2.6high

RBIs

Wade MecklerLAA
1.0± 2.0low
Vaughn GrissomLAA
0.9± 1.9high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
5.0± 4.3low
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.0± 3.7low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.4± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

COL 8 · LAA 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAA +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	3	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	8
LAA	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. McCarthy★CF	2-5	5	1	2	1	0	0	1	15.5
SPRINT29.698
W. Castro★2B	1-5	5	1	1	3	1	0	2	8.4
SPRINT27.969
T. Rumfield★1B	2-5	5	1	2	1	1	0	1	1.2
SPRINT24.85
H. Goodman★C	2-4	4	1	2	1	1	1	1	10.2
SPRINT27.148
T. Johnston★RF	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	1	0	7.5
E. Tovar★SS	0-4	4	0	0	1	0	0	1	1.4
S. Thompson★RF	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	2	0	8.2
K. Karros★3B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	16.4
E. Julien★2B	2-2	2	1	2	1	0	0	0	22.5
SPRINT26.225
C. Stevens2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.2
Team	12-37	37	8	12	8	3	5	8	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

J. McCarthy★CF

2-5

15.5

W. Castro★2B

1-5

8.4

T. Rumfield★1B

2-5

1.2

H. Goodman★C

2-4

10.2

T. Johnston★RF

2-4

7.5

E. Tovar★SS

0-4

1.4

S. Thompson★RF

0-3

8.2

K. Karros★3B

1-3

16.4

E. Julien★2B

2-2

22.5

C. Stevens2B

0-2

0.2

Team

12-37

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
T. Sugano★SP	5.0	5	2	2	2	5	0	7.5
B. CastanoRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2.4
T. ShookSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.1
J. MejiaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.2
Team	9.0	7	2	2	2	8	0	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

T. Sugano★SP

5.0

7.5

B. CastanoRP

2.0

2.4

T. ShookSP

1.0

0.1

J. MejiaRP

1.0

0.2

Team

9.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. Soler★DH	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1.7
SPRINT2622
M. Trout★CF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	2	0.7
SPRINT28.688
W. Meckler★LF	2-3	3	0	2	2	0	1	0	10.4
V. Grissom★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	2	9.1
SPRINT26.632
J. Adell★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	9.1
D. Walton★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.7
O. Peraza★2B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	3.6
S. Rivero★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.3
A. Frazier★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.1
N. Madrigal3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.1
Team	7-33	33	2	7	2	0	2	8	—

Batting

Analytics

Player