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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5PIT
COL

COL

17-27

2
7
PIT

PIT

24-20

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
19,101 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

PIT no-vig %

61.6%

open 62.2% · -0.6

+0.5-2.0PIT SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL66.2%57.6%PIT NO-VIG %May 13, 5 PMMay 14, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

COL 2 · PIT 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0002000002
PIT303010007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 58-35
62%Last 30 · 316-197
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.7pp

best edge · COL · DraftKings

COL

★ best
+1180DraftKings

edge +19.7pp · implied 10.8%

PIT

no live price

BookCOLPITBest edge
DraftKings+1180★-180+19.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 17, 26sim 92
    273
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 91
    2710
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 90
    274
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 89
    271
    18(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 89
    271
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 89
    276
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.60

CLV pp

Open price

-186

Close price

-181

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

61.6%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, May 14·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1/VegasPIT -180

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Colorado Rockies, 7–2.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1C. DollanderCOL−20.3pp
  2. 2R. O'HearnPIT+15.3pp
  3. 3B. ReynoldsPIT+14.2pp

COL · top performer

COL
TJ Rumfield

TJ Rumfield

1B

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Ryan O'Hearn

Ryan O'Hearn

RF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
COL17-27
2
7
PIT24-20
COL17-27·PIT24-20
COL

COL

17-27

2
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. BeckJ. Beck★LF
1-440100011.5
SPRINT28.175
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
0-440000023.2
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
1-440100002.4
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
1-221100212.2
SPRINT24.85
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-331000122.3
SPRINT27.969
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
0-330000101.1
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-330120002.3
SPRINT26.326
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-330100001.9
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-330000011.4
Team5-2929252047—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
C. DollanderC. Dollander★SP
1.053310120.3
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
1.12220000.0
V. VodnikV. VodnikRP
0.22111104.4
T. GordonT. GordonRP
4.03111504.3
J. MejiaJ. MejiaRP
1.00000100.1
Team8.01277371—
PIT

PIT

24-20

7
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-551110017.3
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-550000022.1
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-4411100014.2
SPRINT27.969
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
3-4423210015.3
SPRINT26.735
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
2-441200024.4
SPRINT29.899
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-441100012.5
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-331000114.0
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★C
2-330220105.7
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
2-330210100.1
Team12-35357127137—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
M. MontgomeryM. Montgomery★RP
1.01000302.1
E. SiskE. SiskRP
1.00000101.6
C. MlodzinskiC. MlodzinskiSP
5.04223202.8
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.00000001.1
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
1.00001100.5
Team9.0522470—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

  • T. Gordon
    69 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      29%·83.9 mph·30% whiff
    • FF
      28%·92.3 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      28%·85.7 mph·36% whiff
    • CU
      9%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Dollander
    28 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      46%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·83.6 mph·— whiff
  • V. Vodnik
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      44%·87.9 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      6%·92.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      53%·75.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·84.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      20%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Mejia
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • ST
      56%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·98.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.4 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • C. Mlodzinski
    76 pitches·20% CSW
    • FS
      34%·85.0 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      24%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.1 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      11%·83.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      9%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sisk
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      60%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.2 mph·50% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    14 pitches·64% CSW
    • FF
      71%·97.6 mph·83% whiff
    • CU
      14%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·88.1 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Santana
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      50%·93.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      55%·95.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      36%·82.4 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      9%·81.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

12

2

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

May 12COLCOL1@PITPIT3
May 13COLCOL10@PITPIT4
May 14COLCOL2@PITPIT7today

Season series

PIT leads series 2-1

May 12COLCOL1@PITPIT3
May 13COLCOL10@PITPIT4
May 14COLCOL2@PITPIT7today
Jun 20PITPIT@COLCOLupcoming
Jun 21PITPIT@COLCOLupcoming
Jun 21PITPIT@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.5h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

COLCOL+14840%
PITPIT-18064%

↗5· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 1st Inning

COLCOL
T. Rumfield

T. Rumfield

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

T. Gordon

T. Gordon

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

PITPIT
R. O'Hearn

R. O'Hearn

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

C. Mlodzinski

C. Mlodzinski

SP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

PIT beat COL 7-2.

Win probability

PIT vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+10pp→ 89% WP

O'Hearn · homered to center (413 feet), Reynolds scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0002000002
PIT30301000—7

Period scoring

COL won 1 · PIT won 3

0
3

Inn 1

O'Hearn 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Rodr 2

2
0

Inn 4

Johnston 2

0
1

Inn 5

Triolo 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

COL
PIT

Play-by-play · 524 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  2. T9

    Moniak grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Rumfield out at second.

    · ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  4. T9

    Yohan Ramirez pitches to Mickey Moniak

    · ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  5. T9

    · ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  6. T9

    Castro struck out swinging.

    · ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

    +0.7pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  10. T9

    Yohan Ramirez pitches to Willi Castro

    · ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  11. T9

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  12. T9

    Rumfield walked.

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

    −0.6pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  20. T9

    Yohan Ramirez pitches to TJ Rumfield

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  21. T9

    Ramírez relieved Santana

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    COL 2·PIT 7

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    COL 2·PIT 7

  24. B8

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  25. B8

    Lowe flied out to center.

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  29. B8

    Juan Mejia pitches to Brandon Lowe

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

  30. B8

    ·

    COL 2·PIT 7

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

2

Runs

7

5

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

7

TB

18

0

HR

1

4

BB

3

7

K

7

11

LOB

19

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 7.5·COL +148/PIT -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

PIT vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.9± 2.8low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    4.7± 3.4low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Ryan O'HearnPIT
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Ryan O'HearnPIT
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Spencer HorwitzPIT
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Oneil CruzPIT
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.0± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.8%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    67.0%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    67.0%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    68.0%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Billy CookPIT · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Brenton DoyleCOL · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jordan BeckCOL · LF
    SPRINT28.175