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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1MIL
MIL

MIL

25-17

3
2
MIN

MIN

20-25

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
24,309 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIN no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

+2.0+1.0MIN SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL55.1%46.0%MIN NO-VIG %May 15, 6 AMMay 15, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 3 · MIN 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL1000000203
MIN0000011002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

MIL

no live price

MIN

no live price

BookMILMINBest edge
DraftKings-179+136+1.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 22, 26sim 97
    191
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 97
    82
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 93
    190
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 93
    159
    28(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 93
    100
    1(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 92
    191
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.55

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.5%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, May 15·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasMIN -110

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

MIN +1.5 cashed (MIL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Ryan Kreidler

Ryan Kreidler

CF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL25-17
3
2
MIN20-25
MIL25-17·MIN20-25
MIL

MIL

25-17

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
2-55220003
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-44011001
SPRINT24.96
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
2-44021002
SPRINT2744
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
1-22010001
SPRINT29.798
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-44010000
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-44010000
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-44000000
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-22000010
B. PerkinsB. PerkinsCF
0-22000000
J. OrtizJ. OrtizSS
0-11000000
Team9-3636392018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CrowC. Crow★SP
5.0311030
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
2.0411010
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0100110
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0000010
Team9.0822160
MIN

MIN

20-25

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.867
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44010000
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-33000010
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-44000001
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT28.688
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-33010001
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44011001
SPRINT27.251
R. KreidlerR. Kreidler★CF
2-33020001
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
1-33110001
SPRINT27.251
Team8-3232281016
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RyanJ. Ryan★SP
6.0411170
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0200000
A. MorrisA. MorrisRP
0.2321000
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.0000000
Y. GomezY. GomezRP
0.1000010
Team9.0932180

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • C. Crow
    68 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      41%·87.7 mph·44% whiff
    • CU
      21%·74.5 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      19%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      48%·96.5 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      22%·84.4 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      17%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Megill
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.0 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      50%·88.1 mph·67% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      73%·99.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.4 mph·100% whiff

MIN

  • J. Ryan
    90 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      41%·93.5 mph·42% whiff
    • KC
      18%·79.3 mph·10% whiff
    • FS
      17%·87.2 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      10%·79.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Morris
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      13%·91.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      13%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      52%·78.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      30%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·88.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Banda
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • CH
      50%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Gomez
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      71%·95.6 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      29%·84.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

8

3

Runs

2

1

Errors

1

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

May 15MILMIL3@MINMIN2today
May 16MILMIL2@MINMIN1
May 17MILMIL4@MINMIN5

Season series

MIL leads series 1-0

May 15MILMIL3@MINMIN2today
May 16MILMIL2@MINMIN1
May 17MILMIL4@MINMIN5
Aug 7MINMIN@MILMILupcoming
Aug 8MINMIN@MILMILupcoming
Aug 9MINMIN@MILMILupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MILMIL-10952%
MINMIN-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 9th Inning

MILMIL
J. Bauers

J. Bauers

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Crow

C. Crow

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H

MINMIN
R. Kreidler

R. Kreidler

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

J. Ryan

J. Ryan

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIL beat MIN 3-2. Rengifo's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIN vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINBottom 6th Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 60% WP

Martin · singled to center, Outman to third.

MILTop 8th Inning · 1-2
+18pp→ 58% WP

Turang · singled to right, Chourio to third.

MILTop 9th Inning · 3-2
+23pp→ 82% WP

Rengifo · flied out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL1000000203
MIN0000011002

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · MIN won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Contreras 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Lee 1

0
1

Inn 7

Lewis 1

2
0

Inn 8

Contreras 1

0
0

Inn 9

MIL
MIN

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  2. B9

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  3. B9

    Lewis struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  10. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Royce Lewis

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  11. B9

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  12. B9

    Clemens flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

    −7pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  19. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Kody Clemens

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  20. B9

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  21. B9

    Keaschall grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

    −9pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  26. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Luke Keaschall

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  27. B9

    Megill relieved Uribe

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  28. B9

    Ortiz at shortstop.

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  29. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIL 3·MIN 2

  30. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIL 3·MIN 2

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

3

Runs

2

9

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

11

TB

8

0

HR

0

1

BB

1

8

K

6

19

LOB

7

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 9·MIL -109/MIN -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

MIN vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Garrett MitchellMIL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.5%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    38.3%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    38.5%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    38.1%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.