• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3SF
LAD

LAD

16-8

0
3
SF

SF

11-13

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
40,277 attended

Line movement

31 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SF no-vig %

35.5%

open 35.5%

+2.0+1.0SF SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL39.5%31.5%SF NO-VIG %MODEL 38.6%May 3, 7 PMMay 27, 12 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

LAD 0 · SF 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0000000000
SF000000303

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 23, 26sim 97
    193
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 96
    82
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 96
    191
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 94
    191
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 93
    83
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 90
    100
    1(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+169

Close price

+169

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 22·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasLAD -207

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 3–0.

SF +1.5 cashed (LAD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Patrick Bailey

Patrick Bailey

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD16-8
0
3
SF11-13
LAD16-8·SF11-13
LAD

LAD

16-8

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-44000001
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-44000001
SPRINT26.123
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-33000010
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT24.74
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-44000001
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-33010010
SPRINT27.354
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33000011
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-33000001
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-33010000
SPRINT26.123
Team4-3131040035
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
6.0500070
SPRINT2744
J. DreyerJ. Dreyer★RP
1.0333001
K. HurtK. Hurt★RP
1.0000010
Team8.0833081
SF

SF

11-13

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-44000002
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-44010002
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT25.716
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
0-44000002
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-33110001
SPRINT27.148
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
2-33120000
SPRINT27.251
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
0-22000001
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-33113100
SPRINT24.32
Team8-3131383108
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MahleT. Mahle★SP
7.0300250
C. KilianC. KilianRP
1.0100000
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
1.0000100
Team9.0400350

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

8

0

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Apr 22LADLAD1@SFSF3
Apr 23LADLAD0@SFSF3today
Apr 23LADLAD3@SFSF0

Season series

SF leads series 2-0

Apr 22LADLAD1@SFSF3
Apr 23LADLAD0@SFSF3today
Apr 23LADLAD3@SFSF0
May 12SFSF9@LADLAD3
May 13SFSF6@LADLAD2
May 14SFSF0@LADLAD4
May 15SFSF2@LADLAD5
Sep 19SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 20SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 20SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 26LADLAD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 26LADLAD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 27LADLAD@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-20767%
SFSF+16937%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 31 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 24pp · Bottom 7th Inning

LADLAD
F. Freeman

F. Freeman

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 5 H

SFSF
P. Bailey

P. Bailey

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

T. Mahle

T. Mahle

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SF beat LAD 3-0. Bailey's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Win probability

SF vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 4th Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 37% WP

Pages · grounded into fielder's choice to first, Muncy to third, Freeman out at home.

LADBottom 6th Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 53% WP

Schmitt · struck out swinging.

SFBottom 7th Inning · 0-3
+24pp→ 94% WP

Bailey · homered to left center (407 feet), Lee scored and Ramos scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0000000000
SF00000030—3

Period scoring

LAD won 0 · SF won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

Bailey 3

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

LAD
SF

Play-by-play · 474 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  2. T9

    Pages grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  4. T9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Andy Pages

    · ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  5. T9

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  6. T9

    Muncy walked.

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

    −0.6pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  11. T9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Max Muncy

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  12. T9

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  13. T9

    T. Hernández flied out to center.

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

    +0.8pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  18. T9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Teoscar Hernandez

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  19. T9

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  20. T9

    Freeman flied out to left.

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

    +2pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  28. T9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Freddie Freeman

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  29. T9

    Walker relieved Kilian

    ·

    LAD 0·SF 3

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    LAD 0·SF 3

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

SF

Home

0

Runs

3

4

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

4

TB

12

0

HR

1

3

BB

0

5

K

8

13

LOB

7

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 7.5·LAD -207/SF +169

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SF vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    39.6%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    35.1%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    40.7%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 17 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872