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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3COL
COL

COL

13-16

3
0
NYM

NYM

9-19

Citi Field · Queens, New York
38,155 attended

Line movement

36 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

NYM no-vig %

60.0%

open 60.0%

-1.0-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL64.0%56.0%NYM NO-VIG %MODEL 57.4%May 3, 7 PMJun 2, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

COL 3 · NYM 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0120000003
NYM0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 58-35
62%Last 30 · 316-197
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 26, 26sim 99
    273
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 97
    270
    21(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 91
    30
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 89
    32
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 89
    202
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 87
    32
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+139

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sun, Apr 26·Final/SeriesCOL wins series 3-0/VegasNYM -168

Recap · MLB

Colorado Rockies went into New York Mets and beat them, 3–0.

COL +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1C. DollanderCOL+31.0pp
  2. 2K. SengaNYM−27.0pp
  3. 3E. JulienCOL+19.6pp

COL · top performer

COL
Hunter Goodman

Hunter Goodman

C

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Juan Soto

Juan Soto

LF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
COL13-16
3
0
NYM9-19
COL13-16·NYM9-19
COL

COL

13-16

3
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
1-4411001019.6
SPRINT26.225
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
1-4411210212.4
SPRINT27.148
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
1-330100110.4
SPRINT2872
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
0-331000009.0
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
0-330000100.9
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
0-220000210.8
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-330110110.2
SPRINT26.326
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
0-440000020.8
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
0-440000025.0
Team4-3030343169—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
C. DollanderC. Dollander★SP
7.050027031.0
S. HalvorsenS. HalvorsenRP
1.00001002.6
Z. AgnosZ. AgnosRP
1.01000003.8
Team9.0600370—
NYM

NYM

9-19

0
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-440000014.9
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-220100215.7
SPRINT25.513
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-440000027.6
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-330000109.2
M. MelendezM. Melendez★DH
1-440100019.9
SPRINT26.941
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-440100012.3
SPRINT28.175
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
2-4402000012.1
SPRINT28.586
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
1-330100019.9
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
0-3300000014.8
Team6-3131060037—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
K. SengaK. Senga★SP
2.233331127.0
C. Edwards Jr.C. Edwards Jr.RP
3.10003502.5
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.01000001.5
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.00000101.2
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.00000202.2
Team9.0433691—

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

6

3

Runs

0

0

Errors

1

Current series

COL wins series 3-0

Apr 24COLCOL4@NYMNYM3
Apr 25COLCOL0@NYMNYM0
Apr 26COLCOL3@NYMNYM1
Apr 26COLCOL3@NYMNYM0today

Season series

COL leads series 3-0

Apr 24COLCOL4@NYMNYM3
Apr 25COLCOL0@NYMNYM0
Apr 26COLCOL3@NYMNYM1
Apr 26COLCOL3@NYMNYM0today
May 4NYMNYM4@COLCOL2
May 6NYMNYM0@COLCOL0
May 7NYMNYM10@COLCOL5
May 7NYMNYM2@COLCOL6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+13942%
NYMNYM-16863%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 36 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 3rd Inning

COLCOL
H. Goodman

H. Goodman

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

C. Dollander

C. Dollander

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

NYMNYM
J. Soto

J. Soto

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

C. Edwards Jr.

C. Edwards Jr.

RP

Top reliever

3.1 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 3 BB

How it ended

COL beat NYM 3-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
COLBottom 2nd Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 53% WP

Benge · grounded out to first.

COLTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+17pp→ 76% WP

Goodman · homered to right center (390 feet), Julien scored.

COLBottom 5th Inning · 3-0
+14pp→ 81% WP

Taylor · lined into double play, to first, Mauricio doubled off first.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0120000003
NYM0000000000

Period scoring

COL won 2 · NYM won 0

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Johnston 1

2
0

Inn 3

Goodman 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

COL
NYM

Play-by-play · 525 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    COL 3·NYM 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  3. B9

    Benge flied out to left.

    · ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  6. B9

    Zach Agnos pitches to Carson Benge

    · ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  7. B9

    · ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  8. B9

    Semien popped out to first.

    · ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

    −3pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  10. B9

    Zach Agnos pitches to Marcus Semien

    · ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  11. B9

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  12. B9

    Melendez doubled to left.

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

    +3pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  14. B9

    Zach Agnos pitches to MJ Melendez

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  15. B9

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  16. B9

    Baty flied out to center.

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

    −2pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  24. B9

    Zach Agnos pitches to Brett Baty

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  25. B9

    Agnos relieved Halvorsen

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    COL 3·NYM 0

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    COL 3·NYM 0

  28. T9

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  29. T9

    Julien grounded out to second.

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 0

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

3

Runs

0

4

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

7

TB

7

1

HR

0

6

BB

3

9

K

7

14

LOB

11

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7·COL +139/NYM -168

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

NYM vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low
  • Christian ScottNYM
    5.4± 3.2low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.9± 2.7high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.7± 2.5high
  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Tanner GordonCOL
    2.8± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.2%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    57.3%

    P(NYM win)

    44%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    fallback · inputs missing

    57.3%

    P(NYM win)

    11%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.0%

    P(NYM win)

    45%

    weight

Disagreement

0.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.