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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2COL
COL

COL

12-16

3
1
NYM

NYM

9-18

Citi Field · Queens, New York

Line movement

34 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

NYM no-vig %

69.9%

open 69.9%

-1.0-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL73.9%65.9%NYM NO-VIG %May 2, 9 AMJun 2, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

COL 3 · NYM 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0001011003
NYM0000100001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 58-35
62%Last 30 · 316-197
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 26, 26sim 99
    273
    21(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 96
    270
    21(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 92
    30
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 90
    32
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 88
    202
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 88
    32
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

NYM vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low
  • Christian ScottNYM
    5.4± 3.2low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.9± 2.7high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.7± 2.5high
  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Tanner GordonCOL
    2.8± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+218

Close price

+218

Open no-vig

30.1%

Close no-vig

30.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.7%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    57.3%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.6%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.0%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Sun, Apr 26·Final/SeriesCOL wins series 3-0/VegasNYM -271

Recap · MLB

Colorado Rockies went into New York Mets and beat them, 3–1.

COL +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1N. McLeanNYM−59.1pp
  2. 2E. JulienCOL+53.8pp
  3. 3J. SotoNYM−27.9pp

COL · top performer

COL
Jake McCarthy

Jake McCarthy

CF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
COL12-16
3
1
NYM9-18
COL12-16·NYM9-18
COL

COL

12-16

3
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
2-4422000153.8
SPRINT26.225
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
1-3301001123.2
SPRINT2872
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
0-3300001111.2
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-440110006.2
SPRINT26.326
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
0-4400000211.8
B. SullivanB. Sullivan★C
1-4411000114.6
SPRINT2872
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
0-440000027.5
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★CF
2-3302100015.1
SPRINT29.698
J. BeckJ. Beck★LF
0-220000114.0
Team7-3131372039—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
J. QuintanaJ. Quintana★SP
5.121125115.7
J. MejiaJ. MejiaRP
1.200002014.1
J. HillJ. HillRP
1.02001109.8
V. VodnikV. VodnikRP
1.00000208.4
Team9.04113101—
NYM

NYM

9-18

1
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-330100106.4
SPRINT25.716
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-3300001127.9
SPRINT25.513
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
0-3300001013.3
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-4401000212.9
SPRINT25.513
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-4400000214.8
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-440000030.4
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
1-3311110013.6
SPRINT28.891
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
0-220000013.7
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
0-220000002.2
M. MelendezM. MelendezDH
0-110000011.2
C. BengeC. BengeRF
0-110000004.3
F. AlvarezF. AlvarezC
1-110100005.5
SPRINT25.716
Team4-31311411310—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
N. McLeanN. McLean★SP
5.052127059.1
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
2.02111103.3
A. WarrenA. WarrenRP
2.00000103.6
Team9.0732390—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

  • J. Quintana
    85 pitches·26% CSW
    • CU
      25%·79.0 mph·8% whiff
    • FF
      24%·89.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      21%·89.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SV
      18%·79.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.4 mph·60% whiff
  • J. Mejia
    30 pitches·40% CSW
    • ST
      47%·83.9 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      37%·97.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·92.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hill
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      32%·89.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      28%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·85.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.8 mph·33% whiff
  • V. Vodnik
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      47%·93.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      47%·98.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·98.7 mph·— whiff

NYM

  • N. McLean
    91 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      27%·94.8 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      24%·82.3 mph·56% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.8 mph·45% whiff
    • CH
      12%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·85.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      2%·90.8 mph·100% whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    31 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      48%·96.3 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      39%·91.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      13%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Warren
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • ST
      40%·84.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      30%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·94.4 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      10%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

4

3

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

COL wins series 3-0

Apr 24COLCOL4@NYMNYM3
Apr 25COLCOL0@NYMNYM0
Apr 26COLCOL3@NYMNYM1today
Apr 26COLCOL3@NYMNYM0

Season series

COL leads series 2-0

Apr 24COLCOL4@NYMNYM3
Apr 25COLCOL0@NYMNYM0
Apr 26COLCOL3@NYMNYM1today
Apr 26COLCOL3@NYMNYM0
May 4NYMNYM4@COLCOL2
May 6NYMNYM0@COLCOL0
May 7NYMNYM10@COLCOL5
May 7NYMNYM2@COLCOL6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+21831%
NYMNYM-27173%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 5th Inning

COLCOL
J. McCarthy

J. McCarthy

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

J. Quintana

J. Quintana

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

NYMNYM
F. Alvarez

F. Alvarez

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

COL beat NYM 3-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 5th Inning · 1-1
+17pp→ 68% WP

Taylor · homered to left center (381 feet).

COLTop 7th Inning · 3-1
+13pp→ 80% WP

McCarthy · singled to right, Sullivan scored.

COLBottom 8th Inning · 3-1
+17pp→ 93% WP

Vientos · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0001011003
NYM0000100001

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

3

Runs

1

7

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

9

TB

7

0

HR

1

3

BB

3

9

K

10

13

LOB

13

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7·COL +218/NYM -271

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 34 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

NYM vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

COL won 3 · NYM won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Johnston 1

0
1

Inn 5

Taylor 1

1
0

Inn 6

Johnston 1

1
0

Inn 7

McCarthy 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

COL
NYM

Play-by-play · 557 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    COL 3·NYM 1

  2. B9

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  3. B9

    Melendez struck out swinging.

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  10. B9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to MJ Melendez

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  11. B9

    Melendez hit for Taylor

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  12. B9

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  13. B9

    Baty grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

    −3pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  17. B9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Brett Baty

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  18. B9

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  19. B9

    Semien struck out swinging.

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

    −5pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  26. B9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Marcus Semien

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  27. B9

    Vodnik relieved Hill

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    COL 3·NYM 1

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    COL 3·NYM 1

  30. T9

    ·

    COL 3·NYM 1

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · CF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872