MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DET

DET

23-38

109

36-21

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 977 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

13,695 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TB no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.0% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

73.8%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
70.3%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
68.3%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
71.9%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.85

CLV pp

Open price

-168

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

60.8%

Market came to the model

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+14.8pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

DET

no live price

★ best

-162DraftKings

edge +14.8pp · implied 59.1%

Book	DET	TB	Best edge
DraftKings	+134	-162★	+14.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TB vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jack FlahertyDET
5.5± 3.5low
Drew RasmussenTB
5.2± 2.5low
Shane McClanahanTB
4.9± 2.0low

Hits

Jonathan ArandaTB
1.3± 0.8high
Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.3high
Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.7± 3.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.3± 1.9high
Junior CamineroTB
1.8± 1.2high

RBIs

Yandy DiazTB
0.9± 1.4high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 0.8high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
3.0± 3.4low
Jack FlahertyDET
2.8± 2.4low
Steven MatzTB
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 10 · TB 9 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +20pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	2	0	4	0	1	1	0	2	0	10
TB	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	4	0	9

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
K. McGonigle★SS	1-4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	39.0
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerMulti-HR game★C	4-5	5	4	4	4	2	0	0	50.6
SPRINT27.765
K. Carpenter★RF	3-5	5	1	3	2	1	0	1	4.8
SPRINT26.735
R. Greene★LF	3-4	4	1	3	3	1	1	1	13.2
SPRINT2744
S. Torkelson★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	11.6
C. Keith★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	5.8
W. Perez★RF	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	3	2.2
H. Lee★2B	2-5	5	2	2	1	1	0	0	8.3
SPRINT27.457
Z. McKinstry★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	1.0

Team	14-39	39	10	14	10	5	3	8	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

K. McGonigle★SS

1-4

39.0

D. Dingler★C

4-5

50.6

K. Carpenter★RF

3-5

4.8

R. Greene★LF

3-4

13.2

S. Torkelson★1B

0-4

11.6

C. Keith★3B

0-4

5.8

W. Perez★RF

0-5

2.2

H. Lee★2B

2-5

8.3

Z. McKinstry★2B

1-3

1.0

Team

14-39

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
T. Madden★SP	3.1	3	2	2	2	4	1	5.1
T. HoltonRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	4.2
D. SommersRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	3.0
K. FinneganRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1.0
B. BrieskeRP	0.1	0	3	3	3	0	0	4.6
W. VestRP	1.2	2	1	1	0	2	0	8.4

Team	9.0	8	9	9	8	8	2	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

T. Madden★SP

3.1

5.1

T. HoltonRP

1.2

4.2

D. SommersRP

0.2

3.0

K. FinneganRP

1.1

1.0

B. BrieskeRP

0.1

4.6

W. VestRP

1.2

8.4

Team

9.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
Y. Diaz★DH	3-5	5	0	3	0	0	0	0	3.2
SPRINT25.716
J. Aranda★1B	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	3	17.4
R. Palacios★2B	0-3	3	2	0	0	0	2	0	20.8
J. Caminero★3B	1-3	3	3	1	2	1	2	0	28.1
SPRINT25.716
C. Simpson★LF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.8
V. Mesa Jr.★CF	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	2	1	6.6
C. Mullins★CF	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	2	2	24.8
H. Feduccia★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.7
T. Walls★SS	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
R. ViladeRF	1-3	3	1	1	3	1	0	1	0.2
SPRINT28.483
N. FortesC	1-3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0	24.9
SPRINT26.225
O. Dunn3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.6
B. Williamson2B	1-2	2	0	1	2	0	0	0	18.4
SPRINT28.381
Team	8-34	34	9	8	9	2	8	8	—

Batting

Analytics

Player