MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYY

TOR

21-26

NYY

29-19

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

39,082 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

NYY no-vig %

64.3%

open 63.6% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
65.6%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.8%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.4%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.66

CLV pp

Open price

-199

Close price

-205

Open no-vig

63.6%

Close no-vig

64.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.9pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

TOR

no live price

NYY

★ best

-177DraftKings

edge +6.9pp · implied 61.1%

Book	TOR	NYY	Best edge
DraftKings	+146	-177★	+6.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYY vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.7± 3.3low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.1± 2.4low

Hits

Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 1.0high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.8high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Ernie ClementTOR
2.1± 2.3high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.0± 2.0high
Ben RiceNYY
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.4high
Ben RiceNYY
0.7± 1.3high
Cody BellingerNYY
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

NYY

.702

OPS

.715

▶

.763

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.331

4.13

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.10

4.08

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.36

1.27

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

TOR 6 · NYY 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	6
NYY	1	0	0	2	0	0	4	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. SpringerDH	.196	5	1	2	1	1	0	2
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.285	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
K. Okamoto3B	.234	4	1	1	0	0	0	3
L. Sosa2B	.209	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. VarshoCF	.261	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. Clement2B	.283	3	2	1	4	1	1	0
M. StrawRF	.270	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ValenzuelaC	.233	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. SchneiderLF	.141	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. GimenezSS	.237	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SanchezRF	.265	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Y. PinangoLF	.327	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		35	6	9	6	2	3	13

Player

AVG

RBI

.196

.285

.234

.209

.261

.283

.270

.233

.141

.237

.265

.327

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
P. CorbinSP	4.0	6	3	3	3	3	79
B. FisherRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	27
A. MackoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15
Y. RodriguezRP	0.1	3	4	4	1	0	20
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
Team	8.0	11	7	7	4	5	158

Player

4.0

1.2

1.0

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

158

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
P. Goldschmidt1B	.290	4	1	2	2	1	1	0
B. Rice1B	.298	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. JudgeRF	.266	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. BellingerLF	.271	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
A. Rosario3B	.256	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.237	4	1	2	2	1	0	1
A. VolpeSS	.308	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
M. SchuemannSS	.286	2	1	1	0	0	2	0
J.C. EscarraC	.163	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
T. GrishamCF	.166	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. McMahon3B	.183	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	7	11	7	3	4	5

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. WeathersSP	5.1	7	5	5	0	7	90
P. BlackburnRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	20
F. CruzRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	21
D. BednarRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	2	36
Team	9.0	9	6	6	3	13	167

Team

TOR

NYY

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYY vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

NYY vs TOR.