MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10TB

BAL

21-27

616

31-15

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 981 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

13,633 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TB no-vig %

57.1%

open 57.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

75.2%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
70.6%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
75.1%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
70.5%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.92

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

58.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+73.6pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

BAL

no live price

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +73.6pp · implied 0.0%

Book	BAL	TB	Best edge
DraftKings	+118	—★	+73.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TB vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
5.5± 3.1low
Shane BazBAL
5.3± 2.1low
Drew RasmussenTB
5.2± 2.5low

Hits

Jonathan ArandaTB
1.3± 0.8high
Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.3high
Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.7± 3.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.3± 1.9high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

Yandy DiazTB
0.9± 1.4high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 0.8high
Colton CowserBAL
0.7± 1.5high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.8low
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 2.3low
Chris BassittBAL
2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

BAL 6 · TB 16 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +21pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	1	0	3	0	1	1	0	6
TB	1	5	0	2	4	4	0	0	16

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
T. Ward★LF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	1	3	1.1
G. Henderson★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	7.8
A. Rutschman★C	2-4	4	2	2	2	1	1	1	5.4
SPRINT26.632
P. Alonso★1B	3-5	5	0	3	2	0	0	2	3.5
SPRINT25.29
T. O'Neill★RF	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.8
C. Mayo★3B	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	1	6.1
J. Jackson★2B	2-5	5	1	2	0	0	0	0	4.6
SPRINT26.530
W. Wilson★3B	2-4	4	1	2	1	1	0	0	4.4
B. Alexander★3B	1-3	3	1	1	1	0	1	1	4.4
SPRINT28.175
C. CowserRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
Team	12-40	40	6	12	6	2	3	11	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

T. Ward★LF

1-4

1.1

G. Henderson★SS

0-4

7.8

A. Rutschman★C

2-4

5.4

P. Alonso★1B

3-5

3.5

T. O'Neill★RF

0-5

6.8

C. Mayo★3B

1-5

6.1

J. Jackson★2B

2-5

4.6

W. Wilson★3B

2-4

4.4

B. Alexander★3B

1-3

4.4

C. CowserRF

0-1

0.0

Team

12-40

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
T. Rogers★SP	3.2	8	8	7	2	3	0	38.6
W. Wilson★3B	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	4.4
C. FosterRP	1.1	5	4	4	2	0	1	6.9
D. EnnsRP	1.0	3	4	4	3	0	0	0.2
A. KittredgeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.0
Team	8.0	18	16	15	7	4	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

T. Rogers★SP

3.2

38.6

W. Wilson★3B

1.0

4.4

C. FosterRP

1.1

6.9

D. EnnsRP

1.0

0.2

A. KittredgeRP

1.0

0.0

Team

8.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
Y. Diaz★DH	4-5	5	4	4	4	0	0	1	33.8
SPRINT25.716
J. Aranda★1B	1-6	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	9.8
J. Caminero★3B	2-4	4	3	2	4	1	2	0	20.6
SPRINT25.716
R. Vilade★RF	3-3	3	1	3	3	0	1	0	12.0
SPRINT28.483
J. DeLuca★RF	2-5	5	0	2	3	0	0	0	5.7
SPRINT2993
C. Simpson★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.6
N. Fortes★C	0-4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	11.6
T. Walls★SS	2-4	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	20.4
SPRINT27.765
C. Williams★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.0
H. FeducciaC	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.0
R. Palacios2B	2-2	2	2	2	1	0	1	0	4.4
Team	18-40	40	16	18	16	1	7	4	—

Batting

Analytics

Player