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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2MIL
CHW

CHW

0-3

7
9
MIL

MIL

3-0

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
32,737 attended

Line movement

6 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIL no-vig %

60.0%

open 60.0%

-1.0-2.0MIL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL64.0%56.0%MIL NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 29, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

CHW 7 · MIL 9 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW4210000007
MIL200001069

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-168

Close price

-168

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sun, Mar 29·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 3-0/VegasMIL -168

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Chicago White Sox, 9–7.

MIL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 8.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Colson Montgomery

Colson Montgomery

SS

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

5

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Christian Yelich

Christian Yelich

DH

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW0-3
7
9
MIL3-0
CHW0-3·MIL3-0
CHW

CHW

0-3

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-44100012
SPRINT2744
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-44211113
SPRINT27.148
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
2-55220001
SPRINT28.381
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
2-33125110
SPRINT26.326
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
0-44000002
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-33010012
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
2-44121100
SPRINT27.457
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-44000001
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
1-33010011
Team9-34347973512
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. KayA. Kay★SP
4.2322451
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.1211020
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.0100130
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
0.1344110
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
0.1222101
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
0.1000010
Team8.011997122
MIL

MIL

3-0

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-55111002
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-44110012
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-44112010
SPRINT27.148
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
2-44122102
SPRINT24.12
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-33110021
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-44110013
J. QueroJ. Quero★C
0-11000010
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
2-44121001
SPRINT29.294
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
1-33110010
C. YelichC. YelichDH
1-11113100
SPRINT27.148
J. BauersJ. Bauers1B
0-22000001
Team11-353591192712
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SproatB. Sproat★SP
3.0677433
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
2.0100130
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
1.0000030
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
2.0100010
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0100020
Team9.09775123

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • A. Kay
    92 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      35%·96.1 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.4 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      16%·95.5 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      16%·82.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·84.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Leasure
    26 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      46%·95.7 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      4%·95.9 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      58%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·85.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      13%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·94.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·101.9 mph·— whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      37%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      32%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      11%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Murphy
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      35%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      24%·78.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·96.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      12%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·81.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hicks
    3 pitches·67% CSW
    • ST
      67%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·97.7 mph·— whiff

MIL

  • B. Sproat
    86 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      37%·96.8 mph·12% whiff
    • FC
      22%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·86.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      13%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·92.6 mph·40% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    31 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      39%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      26%·79.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      6%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Woodford
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      50%·91.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      32%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      5%·93.3 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      5%·81.6 mph·— whiff
  • T. Megill
    15 pitches·53% CSW
    • FF
      73%·98.5 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      27%·87.7 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Koenig
    13 pitches·62% CSW
    • SI
      69%·95.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.0 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.7 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

11

7

Runs

9

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 3-0

Mar 26CHWCHW2@MILMIL14
Mar 28CHWCHW1@MILMIL6
Mar 29CHWCHW7@MILMIL9today

Season series

MIL wins series 3-0

Mar 26CHWCHW2@MILMIL14
Mar 28CHWCHW1@MILMIL6
Mar 29CHWCHW7@MILMIL9today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW+13942%
MILMIL-16863%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 58pp · Bottom 8th Inning

CHWCHW
C. Montgomery

C. Montgomery

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

A. Kay

A. Kay

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

MILMIL
C. Yelich

C. Yelich

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

B. Sproat

B. Sproat

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 3 K · 7 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

How it ended

MIL beat CHW 9-7. Yelich's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (58pp).

Win probability

MIL vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 1st Inning · 4-0
+21pp→ 60% WP

Montgomery · homered to center (405 feet), Meidroth scored, Murakami scored and Vargas scored.

MILBottom 1st Inning · 4-2
+19pp→ 59% WP

Sánchez homered to left (387 feet), Contreras scored.

MILBottom 8th Inning · 7-9
+58pp→ 95% WP

Yelich · homered to right (421 feet), Turang scored and Rengifo scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW4210000007
MIL20000106—9

Period scoring

CHW won 3 · MIL won 2

4
2

Inn 1

Montgomery 4

2
0

Inn 2

Murakami 1

1
0

Inn 3

Pereira 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Lockridge 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
6

Inn 8

Yelich 3

0

Inn 9

CHW
MIL

Play-by-play · 647 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  2. T9

    Vargas flied out to right.

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  5. T9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Miguel Vargas

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  6. T9

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  7. T9

    Murakami struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

    +4pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  12. T9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Munetaka Murakami

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  13. T9

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  14. T9

    Meidroth struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

    +5pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  19. T9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Chase Meidroth

    · ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  20. T9

    ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  21. T9

    Peters singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

    −8pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  27. T9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Tristan Peters

    ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  28. T9

    Megill relieved Yelich

    ·

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  29. T9

    Contreras catching.

    CHW 7·MIL 9

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 7·MIL 9

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

7

Runs

9

9

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

18

TB

20

3

HR

2

5

BB

7

12

K

12

13

LOB

25

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 8·CHW +139/MIL -168

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

MIL vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    2.3± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    67.2%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.9%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    67.3%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 26, 26sim 96
    42
    8(H)14
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 93
    2013
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 92
    2010
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 92
    311
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 92
    208
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 91
    207
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Derek HillCHW · RF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Joey OrtizMIL · SS
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381