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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CIN
CIN

CIN

5-3

2
0
TEX

TEX

4-4

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
36,393 attended

Line movement

14 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

TEX no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

-1.0-2.0TEX SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL60.3%52.3%TEX NO-VIG %MODEL 52.9%May 4, 4 AMMay 28, 11 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 2 · TEX 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN2000000002
TEX0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Apr 4·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 3-0/VegasTEX -143

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 2–0.

CIN +1.5 cashed (TEX lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Matt McLain

Matt McLain

2B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Evan Carter

Evan Carter

CF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN5-3
2
0
TEX4-4
CIN5-3·TEX4-4
CIN

CIN

5-3

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-44000011
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
2-44120001
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44111001
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
2-44021001
SPRINT26.530
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-44000002
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-44010000
SPRINT25.411
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT28.483
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
0-22000000
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
0-44000001
D. MyersD. MyersCF
0-22000000
Team8-3636282017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. LowderR. Lowder★SP
6.0300240
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0000110
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0000010
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0100210
Team9.0400570
TEX

TEX

4-4

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-33000011
SPRINT28.278
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-44000003
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT24.96
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT2744
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-44000000
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-33000010
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.920
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-22010021
SPRINT28.175
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
0-33000001
Team4-3030040057
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. RockerK. Rocker★SP
5.0622130
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
1.0100000
J. LatzJ. LatzRP
1.0000020
C. BaumlerC. BaumlerRP
1.0000010
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
1.0100010
Team9.0822170

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • R. Lowder
    82 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      29%·84.4 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      28%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      26%·91.7 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.4 mph·17% whiff
  • E. Pagan
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      70%·93.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      30%·81.8 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      56%·90.5 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      44%·97.2 mph·40% whiff
  • T. Santillan
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      55%·93.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SV
      45%·84.0 mph·0% whiff

TEX

  • K. Rocker
    80 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      43%·85.9 mph·21% whiff
    • SI
      28%·95.3 mph·15% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      11%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      8%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Beeks
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      63%·87.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      38%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Latz
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      27%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·83.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Alexander
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      31%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      31%·87.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      15%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Baumler
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • CU
      58%·83.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.9 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

4

2

Runs

0

0

Errors

2

Current series

CIN wins series 3-0

Apr 3CINCIN5@TEXTEX3
Apr 4CINCIN2@TEXTEX0today
Apr 5CINCIN2@TEXTEX1

Season series

CIN leads series 2-0

Apr 3CINCIN5@TEXTEX3
Apr 4CINCIN2@TEXTEX0today
Apr 5CINCIN2@TEXTEX1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CINCIN+11946%
TEXTEX-14359%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 9th Inning

CINCIN
M. McLain

M. McLain

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

R. Lowder

R. Lowder

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

TEXTEX
E. Carter

E. Carter

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

K. Rocker

K. Rocker

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CIN beat TEX 2-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TEX vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 56% WP

Stewart · singled to right, De La Cruz scored.

CINBottom 9th Inning · 2-0
+17pp→ 99% WP

Pederson · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Burger out at second.

CINBottom 9th Inning · 2-0
+8pp→ 100% WP

Carter · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN2000000002
TEX0000000000

Period scoring

CIN won 1 · TEX won 0

2
0

Inn 1

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CIN
TEX

Play-by-play · 539 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  3. B9

    Carter struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

    −8pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  8. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Evan Carter

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  9. B9

    Duran ran for Jung

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  10. B9

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  11. B9

    Jung reached on infield single to shortstop, Smith to third.

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

    +4pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  16. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Josh Jung

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  17. B9

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  18. B9BB

    Jose Trevino challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Josh Smith walks.

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

    +3pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  25. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Josh Smith

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  26. B9

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  27. B9

    Pederson grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Burger out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

    −17pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 0

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

2

Runs

0

8

Hits

4

0

Errors

2

9

TB

4

0

HR

0

1

BB

5

7

K

7

17

LOB

13

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 8.5·CIN +119/TEX -143

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TEX vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.3%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    54.1%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.9%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.2%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 29, 26sim 98
    60
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 97
    172
    28(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 96
    172
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    120
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    74
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 94
    60
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs