Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 28, 2026

FINAL+1TB

18-11

CLE

15-16

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

16,213 attended

Line movement

58 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CLE no-vig %

54.2%

open 54.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.3%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
53.1%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.6%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.3%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.8± 2.5medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 3.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.1± 2.1medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.2± 0.9high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Travis BazzanaCLE
2.1± 3.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.6± 1.3high
Jonny DeLucaTB
1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

Travis BazzanaCLE
0.6± 1.6high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.6± 1.3high
Jonny DeLucaTB
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.7± 2.6medium
Joey CantilloCLE
2.5± 2.7medium
Tanner BibeeCLE
2.5± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CLE

.715

OPS

◀

.718

.682

.333

OBP

◀

.319

.313

4.37

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.99

3.88

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.82

1.22

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.26

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 1 · CLE 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SimpsonLF	.307	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Caminero3B	.257	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.229	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
Y. DiazDH	.324	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. FraleyRF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
C. MullinsCF	.132	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. FortesC	.276	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.233	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. WallsSS	.196	1	1	0	0	0	3	0
B. Williamson2B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	5	1	0	5	7

Player

.307

.257

.229

.324

.250

.132

.276

.233

.196

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. MartinezSP	7.0	3	0	0	1	4	78
I. SeymourRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	10
K. KellyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SulserRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	16
Team	9.0	4	0	0	4	7	106

Player

7.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

106

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.220	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. DeLauterRF	.245	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Ramirez3B	.221	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.193	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.311	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. MartinezLF	.278	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. Bazzana2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
B. NaylorC	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.263	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Hoskins1B	.203	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. HedgesC	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. ValeraLF	.216	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		29	0	4	0	0	4	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BibeeSP	5.0	4	1	1	3	6	93
T. HerrinRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	22
C. BrogdonRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	19
P. PalletteRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
Team	9.0	5	1	1	5	7	151

Team

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.