• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL
STL

STL

30-25

0
0
CIN

CIN

29-27

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

CIN no-vig %

51.8%

open 50.4% · +1.4

+2.0-0.5CIN SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL55.8%46.4%CIN NO-VIG %MODEL 53.0%May 23, 4 PMMay 24, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 0 · CIN 0 (tied)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

STL

no live price

CIN

no live price

BookSTLCINBest edge
DraftKings+104-125+0.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sun, May 24·Final/Seriestied 1-1/VegasCIN -125

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Postponed
STL30-25
0
0
CIN29-27
STL30-25·CIN29-27
STL

STL

30-25

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
CIN

CIN

29-27

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR

Current series

Series tied 1-1

May 22STLSTL0@CINCIN0
May 23STLSTL8@CINCIN1
May 23STLSTL6@CINCIN7
May 24STLSTL0@CINCIN0today

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 22STLSTL0@CINCIN0
May 23STLSTL8@CINCIN1
May 23STLSTL6@CINCIN7
May 24STLSTL0@CINCIN0today
Jun 6CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Jun 6CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Jun 7CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 25CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 25CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 26CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Aug 17STLSTL@CINCINupcoming
Aug 17STLSTL@CINCINupcoming
Aug 18STLSTL@CINCINupcoming
Aug 19STLSTL@CINCINupcoming
Aug 20STLSTL@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+10449%
CINCIN-12556%

↘1· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 10·STL +104/CIN -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

10.0

0.0 since open

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.05

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-112

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

52.5%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Player projections

CIN vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    4.7± 3.0low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.3low
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    1.9± 2.3high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Tyler StephensonCIN
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.4± 3.6low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    54.5%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.2%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.8%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 97
    240
    17(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 94
    301
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 93
    301
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 93
    60
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 93
    20
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 93
    42
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →