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FINAL+1PIT
MIN

MIN

27-31

5
6
PIT

PIT

30-28

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
27,107 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

PIT no-vig %

55.3%

open 56.3% · -1.0

-1.0-2.0PIT SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL60.4%51.3%PIT NO-VIG %May 28, 5 PMMay 29, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

MIN 5 · PIT 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN1220000005
PIT3010000026

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.6pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best
+114DraftKings

edge +4.6pp · implied 44.7%

PIT

no live price

BookMINPITBest edge
DraftKings+114★-137+4.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, May 29·Final/SeriesPIT leads series 1-0/VegasPIT -137

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Minnesota Twins, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

MIN +1.5 cashed (PIT won by 1). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Trevor Larnach

Trevor Larnach

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN27-31
5
6
PIT30-28
MIN27-31·PIT30-28
MIN

MIN

27-31

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-44000002
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT26.428
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44111102
SPRINT27.457
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-44110000
SPRINT25.18
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
2-44222102
SPRINT26.632
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-33100011
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
1-33010011
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44010001
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
1-33012002
SPRINT26.428
R. KreidlerR. KreidlerCF
0-11000000
Team8-34345852212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BradleyT. Bradley★SP
4.0544261
E. OrzeE. OrzeRP
1.2100030
Y. GomezY. GomezRP
0.2000110
A. BandaA. BandaRP
0.2000210
C. LawerysonC. LawerysonRP
1.0000010
T. RogersT. RogersRP
0.1222011
Team8.18665132
PIT

PIT

30-28

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
2-44020010
SPRINT24.85
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-44100014
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-33212120
SPRINT27.969
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT28.586
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-33112111
SPRINT28.483
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
2-44021001
SPRINT29.899
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★C
1-44010003
J. GarciaJ. Garcia★RF
0-33000002
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
0-44000002
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
0-11000000
Team8-34346852513
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. JonesJ. Jones★SP
4.1755262
E. SiskE. SiskRP
0.2000010
W. DotelW. DotelRP
3.0100040
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0000010
Team9.08552122

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • T. Bradley
    87 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.9 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      36%·90.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      14%·92.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      7%·81.9 mph·— whiff
  • E. Orze
    23 pitches·43% CSW
    • FS
      57%·84.3 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      22%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·87.6 mph·— whiff
  • A. Banda
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      33%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      22%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Laweryson
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      69%·92.5 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      19%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Gomez
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      43%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·91.8 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      42%·93.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      42%·78.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      17%·88.2 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • J. Jones
    77 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      36%·99.0 mph·26% whiff
    • SL
      26%·88.9 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      19%·92.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      18%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
  • W. Dotel
    38 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      42%·99.3 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      24%·89.3 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      21%·92.6 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      13%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sisk
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      36%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·79.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      18%·76.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.0 mph·— whiff
  • G. Soto
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·97.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

8

5

Runs

6

2

Errors

0

Current series

PIT leads series 1-0

May 29MINMIN5@PITPIT6today
May 30MINMIN@PITPITupcoming
May 31MINMIN@PITPITupcoming

Season series

PIT leads series 1-0

May 29MINMIN5@PITPIT6today
May 30MINMIN@PITPITupcoming
May 31MINMIN@PITPITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+11447%
PITPIT-13758%

↗6· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 73pp · Bottom 9th Inning

MINMIN
T. Larnach

T. Larnach

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Bradley

T. Bradley

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

J. Jones

J. Jones

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PIT beat MIN 6-5. Reynolds's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (73pp).

Win probability

PIT vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 3rd Inning · 5-3
+21pp→ 69% WP

Larnach · homered to right (424 feet), Bell scored.

MINBottom 8th Inning · 5-4
+24pp→ 66% WP

Mangum · grounded into fielder's choice to first, Griffin to third, Cruz out at home.

PITBottom 9th Inning · 5-6
+73pp→ 100% WP

Reynolds · homered to left (422 feet), Callihan scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN1220000005
PIT3010000026

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · PIT won 2

1
3

Inn 1

Clemens 1

Gonzales 1

2
0

Inn 2

Gray 2

2
1

Inn 3

Larnach 2

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

Reynolds 2

MIN
PIT

Play-by-play · 584 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    MIN 5·PIT 6

  2. B9

    Reynolds homered to left (422 feet), Callihan scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 5·PIT 6

    +73pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 5·PIT 6

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  8. B9

    Taylor Rogers pitches to Bryan Reynolds

    · ·

    MIN 5·PIT 6

  9. B9

    · ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  10. B9

    Lowe struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

    −14pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  14. B9

    Taylor Rogers pitches to Brandon Lowe

    · ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  15. B9

    Callihan ran for Horwitz

    ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  16. B9

    ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  17. B9

    Horwitz reached on infield single to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

    +16pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  22. B9

    Taylor Rogers pitches to Spencer Horwitz

    ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  23. B9

    Rogers relieved Laweryson

    ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  24. B9

    Kreidler at shortstop.

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  27. T9

    ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  28. T9

    Kreidler grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

    +0.7pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

  30. T9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Ryan Kreidler

    ·

    MIN 5·PIT 4

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

5

Runs

6

8

Hits

8

2

Errors

0

15

TB

14

2

HR

2

2

BB

5

12

K

13

12

LOB

16

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 8·MIN +114/PIT -137

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.01

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

44.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

PIT vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.6%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    52.5%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.0%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.4%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 25, 26sim 97
    288
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 97
    189
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 96
    281
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 96
    167
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 96
    43
    26(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 96
    184
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs