Starter edge
3.89 ERA
Jeffrey Springs vs Andre Pallante - 4.34 ERA
Springs owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving ATH cleaner opening script tonight.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Athletics
STL
STL
23-17
PregameTue, 9:40 PM EDT
ATH
ATH
21-19
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketSutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 8.23
A. Pallante
3-3 · 4.34 ERA
vs
J. Springs
3-2 · 3.89 ERA
Line movement
200 snapshots
ATH spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 10.0
open O/U 10.5 · -0.5
ATH no-vig %
58.3%
open 58.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Andre Pallante
SP · #53
3-3
W-L
4.34
ERA
1.37
WHIP
29
K
37.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMILL(3-3)6.0 IP5 ER3 K
@PITW(3-2)6.0 IP1 ER6 K
vsSEAL(2-2)5.1 IP3 ER8 K
Home starter
Jeffrey Springs
SP · #59
3-2
W-L
3.89
ERA
1.14
WHIP
39
K
44.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@PHI-5.1 IP2 ER4 K
vsKC-3.0 IP2 ER4 K
@TEXL(3-2)6.0 IP4 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 10
Money+129 / -156
Model edge
Win prob48% / 52%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
No prior meetings logged this season yet.
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Pick a side.
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21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
STL
- 1.J. Wetherholt2B
- 2.I. HerreraC
- 3.J. WalkerRF
- 4.A. Burleson1B
- 5.M. WinnSS
- 6.J. FerminLF
- 7.Y. PozoDH
- 8.N. ChurchCF
- 9.T. Saggese3B
ATH
- 1.N. Kurtz1B
- 2.S. LangeliersC
- 3.T. SoderstromLF
- 4.B. RookerDH
- 5.C. CortesRF
- 6.Z. Gelof3B
- 7.L. ButlerCF
- 8.D. HernaizSS
- 9.J. McNeil2B
Scouting report · pre-game
ATH vs STL.
ATH is 5-5 recently; STL is 5-5.
52.2%
model · ATH win prob
Recent form
- ATH5–5+0.2
- STL5–5+0.6
Situational
- ATH3d rest
- STL3d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATH has 6 straight road games; STL has 4.
Model angle
+6.0ppon STL
STL's edge is mostly venue split plus model confidence. Travel burden is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
- ▲Venue split+1.3pp
- ▼Travel burden-1.1pp
Players to watch
- Shea LangeliersATH2.9total bases · ±2.8
Shea Langeliers · 2.9 TB · last-10 3.2 vs season 2.6.
- Jordan WalkerSTL2.4total bases · ±2.4
Jordan Walker · 2.4 TB · last-10 2.6 vs season 2.2.
- Brent RookerATH1.8total bases · ±2.1
Brent Rooker · 1.8 TB · last-10 2.1 vs season 1.4.
Line move
open -156→-156flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
52.6%
ensemble · ATH favored
Elo Static
52.2%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.8%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.7%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.26 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Player projections
ATH vs STL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
119
projections · 56 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Luis SeverinoATH5.2± 2.8low
- Jeffrey SpringsATH4.9± 2.3low
- Aaron CivaleATH4.1± 1.8low
Hits
- Shea LangeliersATH1.6± 1.0high
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.2± 1.3high
- Nick KurtzATH1.1± 0.8high
Total bases
- Shea LangeliersATH2.9± 2.8high
- Jordan WalkerSTL2.4± 2.4high
- Brent RookerATH1.8± 2.1high
RBIs
- Brent RookerATH0.9± 1.4high
- Alec BurlesonSTL0.8± 0.9high
- Jordan WalkerSTL0.8± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Jacob LopezATH3.0± 2.3low
- Dustin MaySTL2.9± 3.2low
- Andre PallanteSTL2.6± 3.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
The One modelTossup
Tue, May 12STL
Cardinals
23-18
vs52.2%ATH
ATH★
Athletics
21-23
STL 47.8%win prob52.2% ATH
ATH 1495 · STL 1504Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
