MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5ATH

ATH

7-7

116

NYM

7-8

Citi Field · Queens, New York

38,244 attended

Line movement

13 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

NYM no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.5%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
51.2%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.5%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.6%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

NYM vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.2± 2.8low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.5± 3.2low
Christian ScottNYM
5.2± 3.0low

Hits

Jacob WilsonATH
1.2± 0.6high
Shea LangeliersATH
1.1± 0.9high
Zack GelofATH
1.1± 0.4high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.4± 2.7high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.8high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high
Jonah HeimATH
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 2.4low
David PetersonNYM
2.6± 3.7low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

NYM

.735

OPS

◀

.715

.662

.326

OBP

◀

.319

.292

4.32

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.04

4.60

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.88

1.42

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 11 · NYM 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	4	0	11
NYM	1	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
L. ButlerRF	.190	5	0	1	1	0	0	3
N. Kurtz1B	.196	3	1	0	0	0	2	1
S. LangeliersC	.296	5	2	2	1	0	0	1
T. SoderstromLF	.236	5	2	3	5	2	0	0
J. WilsonSS	.250	5	2	2	0	0	0	1
J. McNeil2B	.325	5	2	3	0	0	0	1
M. Muncy3B	.321	5	0	2	0	0	0	3
C. CortesRF	.333	4	1	1	3	1	1	0
D. ClarkeCF	.171	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
D. HernaizSS	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		41	11	15	11	3	4	11

Player

AVG

RBI

.190

.196

.296

.236

.250

.325

.321

.333

.171

.250

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. LopezSP	5.0	7	5	5	3	5	96
J. KuhnelRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	7
J. SternerRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	24
M. Leiter Jr.RP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
L. MedinaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	10	6	6	4	10	151

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

151

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. LindorSS	.167	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
L. Robert Jr.CF	.298	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
J. Polanco1B	.200	5	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. Bichette3B	.250	3	1	2	3	1	2	1
M. Vientos1B	.278	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. AlvarezC	.300	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
C. BengeRF	.140	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. Semien2B	.200	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. TaylorCF	.235	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Baty3B	.245	1	0	0	1	0	0	1
Team		36	6	10	6	3	4	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
K. SengaSP	2.1	8	7	7	2	3	72
H. BrazobanRP	2.2	2	0	0	0	3	38
B. RaleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	13
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	10
L. WeaverRP	1.0	3	4	4	1	1	27
L. GarciaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18
Team	9.0	15	11	11	4	11	178

Team

ATH

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

NYM vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.