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FINAL+2KC
CLE

CLE

51-52

3
5
KC

KC

51-53

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
21,801 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

CLE 3 · KC 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
CLE00001010013
KC00020000035

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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MLB edges →Full slate →
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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Jul 26·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Cleveland Guardians, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Daniel Schneemann

Daniel Schneemann

CF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia

3B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
CLE51-52
3
5
KC51-53
CLE51-52·KC51-53
CLE

CLE

51-52

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-55110002
SPRINT26.530
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-44000011
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
2-55020000
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
2-55021001
SPRINT25.411
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
1-55010003
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
0-22000001
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
2-22220020
SPRINT27.457
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33000011
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
1-33012001
SPRINT27.354
N. JonesN. JonesRF
0-33000001
Team9-37373930411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. WilliamsG. Williams★SP
6.0522231
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
0.2000100
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.1000010
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
1.0000010
E. ClaseE. ClaseRP
0.1133201
Team9.1655552
KC

KC

51-53

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
1-55113102
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-44000000
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-33122111
SPRINT27.765
S. PerezS. Perez★C
2-44020001
SPRINT241
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-11000000
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-22000010
JJ. Rave★RF
0-22100020
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-11000000
M. MelendezM. MelendezDH
0-33000000
T. TolbertT. Tolbert2B
0-11000001
F. FerminF. FerminC
0-11000000
Team6-3131565255
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
5.1311150
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
0.2100010
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
0.2211110
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.1000010
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0100120
S. CruzS. CruzRP
1.0211110
Team10.09334110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • G. Williams
    79 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      32%·96.4 mph·7% whiff
    • CU
      27%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·87.4 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      14%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Clase
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      73%·98.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      27%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Smith
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      67%·95.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      17%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      80%·92.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      83%·88.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.3 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • M. Wacha
    80 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      39%·92.3 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      24%·78.1 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      24%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·72.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Cruz
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      55%·99.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      36%·94.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      9%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      70%·93.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      20%·82.2 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      10%·88.8 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Estevez
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • CH
      35%·88.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      35%·97.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    9 pitches·56% CSW
    • SL
      56%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      22%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.8 mph·— whiff
  • L. Erceg
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·84.6 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

3

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Mar 27CLECLE7@KCKC4
Mar 29CLECLE3@KCKC4
Mar 30CLECLE6@KCKC2
Jul 26CLECLE0@KCKC0
Jul 26CLECLE3@KCKC5today
Jul 26CLECLE6@KCKC4
Jul 27CLECLE1@KCKC4

Season series

CLE leads series 4-3

Mar 27CLECLE7@KCKC4
Mar 29CLECLE3@KCKC4
Mar 30CLECLE6@KCKC2
Apr 11KCKC0@CLECLE7
Apr 12KCKC3@CLECLE6
Apr 13KCKC4@CLECLE2
Jul 26CLECLE0@KCKC0
Jul 26CLECLE3@KCKC5today
Jul 26CLECLE6@KCKC4
Jul 27CLECLE1@KCKC4
Sep 8KCKC2@CLECLE10
Sep 9KCKC0@CLECLE2
Sep 10KCKC4@CLECLE3
Sep 11KCKC2@CLECLE3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 70pp · Bottom 10th Inning

CLECLE
D. Schneemann

D. Schneemann

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

G. Williams

G. Williams

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

KCKC
M. Garcia

M. Garcia

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

KC beat CLE 5-3. India's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (70pp).

Win probability

KC vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 4th Inning · 0-2
+23pp→ 80% WP

Garcia · homered to left center (418 feet), Witt Jr. scored.

CLETop 10th Inning · 3-2
+21pp→ 81% WP

Manzardo · singled to center, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second, Martínez to third.

KCBottom 10th Inning · 3-5
+70pp→ 100% WP

India · homered to left center (413 feet), Rave scored and Maile scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
CLE00001010013
KC00020000035

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · KC won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Garcia 2

1
0

Inn 5

Naylor 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Naylor 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

1
3

Inn 10

Manzardo 1

India 3

CLE
KC

Play-by-play · 586 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    ·

    CLE 3·KC 5

  2. B10

    India homered to left center (413 feet), Rave scored and Maile scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 5

    +70pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 5

  4. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  5. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  6. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  7. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  8. B10

    Emmanuel Clase pitches to Jonathan India

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 5

  9. B10

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  10. B10

    Maile walked, Rave to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

    −16pp

  11. B10

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  12. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  13. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  14. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  15. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  16. B10

    Tolbert picked off second.

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  17. B10

    Tolbert picked off second.

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  18. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  19. B10

    Emmanuel Clase pitches to Luke Maile

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  20. B10

    Maile hit for Cruz

    ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  21. B10

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  22. B10

    Rave walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

    +10pp

  23. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  24. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  25. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  26. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  27. B10

    Emmanuel Clase pitches to John Rave

    ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  28. B10

    Clase relieved Gaddis

    ·

    CLE 3·KC 2

  29. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    CLE 3·KC 2

  30. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    CLE 3·KC 2

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

KC

Home

3

Runs

5

9

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

12

TB

15

0

HR

2

4

BB

5

11

K

5

25

LOB

13

Player projections

KC vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high
  • Rhys HoskinsCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    53.5%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.6%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.4%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 27, 25sim 97
    51
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 96
    56
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 96
    53
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 95
    253
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 94
    13
    5(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 94
    305
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs