MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CLE

CLE

52-52

51-54

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

25,278 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.3%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
54.7%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.7%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.8%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low
Noah CameronKC
5.3± 2.5low

Hits

Jac CaglianoneKC
1.4± 1.3high
Jose RamirezCLE
1.1± 1.1high
Michael MasseyKC
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.3± 2.8high
Jose RamirezCLE
2.0± 2.3high
Michael MasseyKC
1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.6± 1.0high
Michael MasseyKC
0.6± 0.8high
Angel MartinezCLE
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low
Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Joey CantilloCLE
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

.689

OPS

.715

.692

.317

OBP

.319

.315

4.03

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.96

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.45

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 6 · KC 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	3	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	6
KC	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. KwanCF	.286	4	2	1	2	1	1	0
A. MartinezLF	.249	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. Ramirez3B	.298	4	2	1	0	0	1	0
C. Santana1B	.223	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
G. AriasSS	.230	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. SchneemannCF	.217	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
J. RodriguezRF	.177	4	0	2	2	0	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.204	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
A. HedgesC	.124	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. JonesRF	.217	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	6	9	6	1	4	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.286

.249

.298

.223

.230

.217

.177

.204

.124

.217

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. BibeeSP	5.0	7	4	4	0	8	93
N. EnrightRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	21
H. GaddisRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	6
E. ClaseRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
Team	9.0	8	4	4	0	10	132

Player

5.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

132

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. India2B	.242	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.287	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.266	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Garcia3B	.296	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
S. PerezC	.255	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. RaveRF	.187	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. FerminC	.262	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
M. MelendezDH	.074	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. IsbelCF	.252	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
Team		35	4	8	4	2	0	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
K. BubicSP	2.2	3	4	3	4	1	66
J. BowlanRP	2.1	5	2	2	0	2	48
T. ClarkeRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	34
S. LongRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	25
Team	9.0	9	6	5	4	6	173

Team

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.