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FINAL+4SD
ARI

ARI

80-81

1
5
SD

SD

89-72

Petco Park · San Diego, California
44,457 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

ARI 1 · SD 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0000100001
SD320000005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 28, 25sim 98
    74
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 97
    284
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 97
    182
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 97
    180
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 96
    183
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 95
    73
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Sep 27·Final/SeriesSD wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Gabriel Moreno

Gabriel Moreno

C

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI80-81
1
5
SD89-72
ARI80-81·SD89-72
ARI

ARI

80-81

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-44111102
SPRINT26.838
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
2-33020010
SPRINT26.428
AA. Del Castillo★DH
0-22000021
SPRINT26.326
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-00000000
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-44000002
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.941
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT29.698
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
0-44000002
C. KaiserC. Kaiser★SS
0-33000003
T. TawaT. TawaLF
0-22000011
Team5-30301511412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
6.0655163
A. HoffmannA. HoffmannRP
1.0100100
T. RashiT. RashiRP
1.0000010
Team8.0755273
SD

SD

89-72

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-22111110
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT26.632
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-33112102
SPRINT27.148
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-44000001
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-44000001
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
0-44000001
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-33110001
SPRINT26.735
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-22010000
E. DiazE. Diaz★C
1-22112101
B. JohnsonB. JohnsonRF
1-11010000
M. McCoyM. McCoy2B
0-11000000
F. FerminF. FerminC
0-11000000
Team7-3131575327
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KingM. King★SP
2.2100230
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
2.1311211
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.0000010
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000030
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0100030
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0000010
Team9.05114121

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

1

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 5-2

Jul 8ARIARI6@SDSD3
Jul 9ARIARI0@SDSD1
Jul 10ARIARI8@SDSD2
Jul 11ARIARI3@SDSD4
Sep 27ARIARI4@SDSD7
Sep 28ARIARI1@SDSD5today
Sep 28ARIARI4@SDSD12

Season series

SD leads series 7-5

Jun 14SDSD1@ARIARI5
Jun 14SDSD7@ARIARI8
Jun 15SDSD8@ARIARI2
Jul 8ARIARI6@SDSD3
Jul 9ARIARI0@SDSD1
Jul 10ARIARI8@SDSD2
Jul 11ARIARI3@SDSD4
Aug 5SDSD2@ARIARI6
Aug 6SDSD10@ARIARI5
Aug 7SDSD3@ARIARI2
Sep 27ARIARI4@SDSD7
Sep 28ARIARI1@SDSD5today
Sep 28ARIARI4@SDSD12

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 1st Inning

ARIARI
G. Moreno

G. Moreno

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

SDSD
F. Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

M. King

M. King

SP

Starting pitcher

2.2 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SD beat ARI 5-1.

Win probability

SD vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+9pp→ 88% WP

Bogaerts · homered to left (424 feet), Arraez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0000100001
SD32000000—5

Period scoring

ARI won 1 · SD won 2

0
3

Inn 1

Bogaerts 2

0
2

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Perdomo 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

ARI
SD

Play-by-play · 528 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  2. T9

    Barrosa struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  8. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Jorge Barrosa

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  9. T9

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  10. T9

    McCarthy grounded out to third.

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  12. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Jake McCarthy

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  13. T9

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  14. T9

    Vargas grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

    +0.8pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  18. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Ildemaro Vargas

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  19. T9

    Suarez relieved Estrada

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ARI 1·SD 5

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ARI 1·SD 5

  22. B8

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  23. B8

    Iglesias lined out to left.

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  24. B8

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  25. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  26. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 1·SD 5

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

SD

Home

1

Runs

5

5

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

10

TB

17

1

HR

3

4

BB

2

12

K

7

12

LOB

10

Player projections

SD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.8± 2.4low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    55.7%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.6%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.3%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175