HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2CLE
CLE

CLE

79-71

7
5
DET

DET

85-66

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
31,639 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

CLE

league avg

DET

DET

.689

OPS

.717

▶

.705

.317

OBP

.319

.315

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.06

3.75

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.94

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 7 · DET 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
CLE01010100047
DET00100100125

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 16·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 7–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1W. VestDET−49.8pp
  2. 2K. CarpenterDET+49.1pp
  3. 3C. SmithCLE−35.6pp

CLE · top performer

CLE
Gabriel Arias

Gabriel Arias

SS

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Kerry Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter

RF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanCF
.2745121000
D. SchneemannCF
.2143000002
J. Ramirez3B
.2825221000
K. Manzardo1B
.2415030002
B. NaylorC
.1875011002
G. AriasSS
.2255122103
N. JonesRF
.2132110000
C. KayfusLF
.2124011013
B. RocchioSS
.2304100002
- A. MartinezLF
.2282111000
- D. FryRF
.1741000000
- J. NoelRF
.1502000001
Team4371371115

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. CantilloSP
5.04112391
M. FestaRP
0.22110019
E. SabrowskiRP
0.20001012
H. GaddisRP
0.21000016
T. HerrinRP
1.00000316
C. SmithRP
1.01110218
J. JunisRP
1.01210114
Team10.095439186

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. JonesDH
.2652000021
G. Torres2B
.2545211101
W. PerezRF
.2595000001
S. Torkelson1B
.2425142101
R. GreeneLF
.2654110001
A. Ibanez2B
.2412000000
D. DinglerC
.2804011001
P. MeadowsCF
.2233000010
J. BaezSS
.2543000001
- K. CarpenterRF
.2581111100
- C. Keith3B
.2541010000
- J. RogersC
.1981000001
- T. SweeneySS
.1991000000
- Z. McKinstry2B
.2611000001
Team38595339

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. MizeSP
5.17331887
T. HoltonRP
1.20000118
B. HornRP
0.21000120
R. MonteroRP
1.10000422
W. VestRP
1.05430122
Team10.01376115169

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • J. Cantillo
    91 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      48%·92.6 mph·5% whiff
    • CH
      24%·79.8 mph·15% whiff
    • CU
      20%·78.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      8%·86.1 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Festa
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      53%·92.3 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      47%·84.6 mph·17% whiff
  • C. Smith
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      67%·98.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      33%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      50%·88.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      38%·94.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      13%·81.3 mph·— whiff
  • T. Herrin
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • CU
      38%·81.2 mph·80% whiff
    • FF
      38%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Junis
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • CH
      57%·86.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      36%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      58%·93.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      25%·81.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.0 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • C. Mize
    87 pitches·32% CSW
    • FS
      39%·87.4 mph·41% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.2 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.6 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      3%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      3%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Montero
    22 pitches·45% CSW
    • FS
      55%·87.6 mph·83% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      5%·86.0 mph·— whiff
  • W. Vest
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      41%·87.7 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·89.7 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Horn
    20 pitches·5% CSW
    • FF
      40%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.9 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Holton
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      44%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·83.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·91.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·83.5 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

9

7

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 6-1

May 22CLECLE7@DETDET0
May 23CLECLE3@DETDET1
May 24CLECLE7@DETDET5
May 25CLECLE0@DETDET5
Sep 16CLECLE7@DETDET5today
Sep 17CLECLE4@DETDET0
Sep 18CLECLE3@DETDET1

Season series

Series tied 4-4

May 22CLECLE7@DETDET0
May 23CLECLE3@DETDET1
May 24CLECLE7@DETDET5
May 25CLECLE0@DETDET5
Jul 4DETDET2@CLECLE1
Jul 5DETDET1@CLECLE0
Jul 6DETDET7@CLECLE2
Sep 16CLECLE7@DETDET5today
Sep 17CLECLE4@DETDET0
Sep 18CLECLE3@DETDET1
Sep 23DETDET2@CLECLE5
Sep 24DETDET1@CLECLE5
Sep 25DETDET4@CLECLE2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 49pp · Bottom 9th Inning

CLECLE
G. Arias

G. Arias

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

J. Cantillo

J. Cantillo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

DETDET
K. Carpenter

K. Carpenter

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CLE beat DET 7-5. Carpenter's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (49pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

DET vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 4th Inning · 2-1
+15pp→ 52% WP

Arias · homered to right center (412 feet).

DETBottom 9th Inning · 3-3
+49pp→ 54% WP

Carpenter · homered to center (429 feet).

CLETop 10th Inning · 5-3
+19pp→ 90% WP

Mart · ínez tripled to center, Kwan scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
CLE01010100047
DET00100100125

Period scoring

CLE won 3 · DET won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Kayfus 1

0
1

Inn 3

Torres 1

1
0

Inn 4

Arias 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

Naylor 1

Dingler 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Carpenter 1

4
2

Inn 10

Kwan 1

Torkelson 2

CLE
DET

Play-by-play · 681 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    CLE 7·DET 5

  2. B10

    ·

    CLE 7·DET 5

  3. B10

    Sweeney lined out to center.

    ·

    CLE 7·DET 5

    −1pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 7·DET 5

  5. B10

    Jakob Junis pitches to Trey Sweeney

    ·

    CLE 7·DET 5

  6. B10

    ·

    CLE 7·DET 5

  7. B10

    Greene flied out to left.

    ·

    CLE 7·DET 5

    −3pp

  8. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 7·DET 5

  9. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 7·DET 5

  10. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 7·DET 5

  11. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 7·DET 5

  12. B10

    Jakob Junis pitches to Riley Greene

    ·

    CLE 7·DET 5

  13. B10

    ·

    CLE 7·DET 5

  14. B10

    Torkelson homered to left center (401 feet), Torres scored.

    · ·

    CLE 7·DET 5

    +2pp

  15. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 7·DET 5

  16. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 7·DET 3

  17. B10

    Jakob Junis pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    · ·

    CLE 7·DET 5

  18. B10

    · ·

    CLE 7·DET 3

  19. B10

    Pérez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CLE 7·DET 3

    −3pp

  20. B10

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 7·DET 3

  21. B10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 7·DET 3

  22. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CLE 7·DET 3

  23. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 7·DET 3

  24. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 7·DET 3

  25. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 7·DET 3

  26. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 7·DET 3

  27. B10

    Jakob Junis pitches to Wenceel Perez

    ·

    CLE 7·DET 3

  28. B10

    Junis relieved Smith

    ·

    CLE 7·DET 3

  29. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    CLE 7·DET 3

  30. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    CLE 7·DET 3

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

DET

Home

7

Runs

5

13

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

23

TB

19

1

HR

3

1

BB

3

15

K

9

21

LOB

15

Player projections

DET vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.0± 3.5low
  • Tarik SkubalDET
    6.1± 2.9low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    5.8± 2.3low

Hits

  • Gleyber TorresDET
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Gleyber TorresDET
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Kerry CarpenterDET
    1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Kerry CarpenterDET
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Gleyber TorresDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    2.8± 2.5low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.8± 2.6low
  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    2.5± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    53.6%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.9%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.6%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.