MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11HOU

HOU

78-65

110

TEX

73-70

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

38,332 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.4%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
56.9%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.2%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.7%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.6low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.0± 2.5low
Peter LambertHOU
5.7± 2.5low

Hits

Taylor TrammellHOU
1.1± 0.8low
Josh JungTEX
1.1± 0.9high
Cam SmithHOU
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.3± 3.5high
Christian WalkerHOU
2.0± 2.9high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

Christian WalkerHOU
0.9± 1.4high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.9± 1.4high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.4± 2.8low
Jack LeiterTEX
3.0± 2.4low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 11 · TEX 0 (by 11)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	3	5	11
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Pena★SS	2-6	6	1	2	0	0	0	3
SPRINT28.483
Y. Alvarez★DH	3-5	5	1	3	2	1	0	2
SPRINT24.64
J. Altuve★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. Correa★SS	1-6	6	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Sanchez★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
V. Caratini★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Walker★1B	2-5	5	2	2	2	1	0	1
SPRINT25.920
Y. Diaz★C	2-5	5	1	2	3	0	0	0
SPRINT25.513
J. Meyers★CF	1-5	5	1	1	1	0	0	1
M. DubonSS	1-1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
SPRINT26.428
R. Urias3B	1-1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. SmithRF	1-1	1	2	1	0	0	1	0
T. TrammellCF	1-1	1	2	1	0	0	0	0
Team	15-44	44	11	15	11	2	4	12

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

2-6

3-5

0-4

1-6

0-2

0-2

2-5

2-5

1-5

1-1

1-1

1-1

1-1

Team

15-44

	Pitching
H. Brown★SP	6.0	4	0	0	3	8	0
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0
J. MurrayRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. VanWeyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	9.0	4	0	0	4	11	0

Pitching

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
J. Smith★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT27.354
W. Langford★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
SPRINT2872
J. Pederson★DH	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.716
J. Burger★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Harris★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Jung★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.920
A. Osuna★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT2872
J. Heim★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. Duran★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
SPRINT28.891

Team	4-31	31	0	4	0	0	4	11

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

J. Smith★2B

1-3