MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4TEX

TEX

81-79

CLE

86-74

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

36,275 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.7%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
58.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.5%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.2± 3.6low
Parker MessickCLE
6.4± 2.1low
Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.6low

Hits

Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 0.9high
Josh JungTEX
1.1± 0.9high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Travis BazzanaCLE
2.0± 2.1high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.4high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.9± 1.4high
Brandon NimmoTEX
0.6± 1.1high
Jake BurgerTEX
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
3.0± 2.5low
Jack LeiterTEX
3.0± 2.4low
Tanner BibeeCLE
2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 7 · CLE 3 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	7
CLE	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Pederson★DH	2-4	4	2	2	0	0	1	1
SPRINT25.716
C. Freeman★3B	3-5	5	1	3	2	0	0	1
J. Jung★3B	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
R. Tellez★1B	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
E. Duran★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Osuna★LF	1-4	4	1	1	3	1	0	0
SPRINT2872
J. Heim★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. McKinney★LF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Helman★CF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT2744
Team	12-39	39	7	12	7	1	1	9

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

2-4

3-5

1-5

1-2

0-4

1-4

1-4

1-4

1-4

1-3

Team

12-39

	Pitching
J. Leiter★SP	7.0	4	2	2	1	10	1
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. MatonRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0
Team	9.0	5	3	3	2	11	1

Pitching

Player

J. Leiter★SP

7.0

S. ArmstrongRP

1.0

P. MatonRP

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
S. Kwan★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Valera★LF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT25.513
J. Ramirez★3B	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
SPRINT27.251
K. Manzardo★1B	1-4	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
SPRINT25.411
B. Naylor★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Arias★SS	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
SPRINT26.530
D. Schneemann★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Kayfus★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Rocchio★SS	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.354
Team	5-31	31	3	5	3	1	2	11

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI