• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Live · 1
  • WNBA6:00 - 1st
    SEA 4@TOR 10
    +11.2ppmedium
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2CHC
TB

TB

72-75

4
6
CHC

CHC

84-63

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
38,794 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

TB 4 · CHC 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB3001000004
CHC032100006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 20, 25sim 97
    286
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 97
    305
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 96
    263
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 96
    303
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 95
    304
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 95
    296
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Sep 12·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Tampa Bay Rays, 6–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Christopher Morel

Christopher Morel

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Ian Happ

Ian Happ

LF

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB72-75
4
6
CHC84-63
TB72-75·CHC84-63
TB

TB

72-75

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-33100011
SPRINT25.716
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
1-44113102
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-44000000
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
2-44120001
SPRINT2993
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
0-22000010
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
0-33000000
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-33011001
SPRINT26.225
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
0-33000000
J. LoweJ. LoweLF
0-11000001
Team5-3131454126
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
2.1655350
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
1.2211011
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.0000020
G. JaxG. JaxRP
1.0100030
E. OrzeE. OrzeRP
1.1300210
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
0.2000000
Team8.012665121
CHC

CHC

84-63

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
2-55021001
SPRINT25.716
I. HappI. Happ★LF
3-44132111
SPRINT27.662
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-55010003
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-55000003
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-33220010
SPRINT28.278
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
2-44121000
SPRINT24.53
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-33111002
SPRINT27.867
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-22110021
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-33001011
Team12-343461261512
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BoydM. Boyd★SP
5.0544211
P. HodgeP. HodgeRP
1.0000010
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.0000010
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000020
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0000010
Team9.0544261

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • S. Baz
    67 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      48%·96.7 mph·23% whiff
    • KC
      19%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·89.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      15%·87.5 mph·25% whiff
  • E. Orze
    37 pitches·24% CSW
    • FS
      57%·83.4 mph·23% whiff
    • SL
      24%·89.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      19%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Uceta
    29 pitches·21% CSW
    • CH
      55%·87.9 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      31%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·90.5 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      7%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Jax
    21 pitches·43% CSW
    • ST
      33%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      29%·93.2 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      19%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·97.6 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      5%·92.4 mph·— whiff
  • K. Kelly
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SI
      46%·91.3 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      38%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·88.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      8%·93.4 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      67%·87.3 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      22%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.8 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • M. Boyd
    83 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      53%·93.1 mph·12% whiff
    • CH
      20%·78.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·72.9 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      12%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Hodge
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      53%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      47%·86.7 mph·25% whiff
  • B. Keller
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      46%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      15%·97.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      15%·85.1 mph·— whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      73%·92.7 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      27%·84.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      57%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·89.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      14%·94.8 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

12

4

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Sep 12TBTB4@CHCCHC6today
Sep 13TBTB5@CHCCHC4
Sep 14TBTB3@CHCCHC4

Season series

CHC lead series 1-0

Sep 12TBTB4@CHCCHC6today
Sep 13TBTB5@CHCCHC4
Sep 14TBTB3@CHCCHC4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 1st Inning

TBTB
C. Morel

C. Morel

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

2.1 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

CHCCHC
I. Happ

I. Happ

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

M. Boyd

M. Boyd

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHC beat TB 6-4. Morel's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

CHC vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+20pp→ 62% WP

Morel · homered to left center (383 feet), Simpson scored and Díaz scored.

CHCBottom 2nd Inning · 3-2
+12pp→ 58% WP

Busch · singled to right, Swanson scored, Castro to third.

CHCBottom 3rd Inning · 3-4
+13pp→ 82% WP

Ballesteros · tripled to right, Hoerner scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB3001000004
CHC03210000—6

Period scoring

TB won 1 · CHC won 2

3
0

Inn 1

Morel 3

0
3

Inn 2

Swanson 1

0
2

Inn 3

Ballesteros 1

1
1

Inn 4

Fortes 1

Happ 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TB
CHC

Play-by-play · 576 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  2. T9

    J. Lowe struck out swinging.

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  6. T9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Josh Lowe

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  7. T9

    J. Lowe hit for Pereira

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  8. T9

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  9. T9

    Mangum grounded out to catcher.

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

    +2pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  11. T9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Jake Mangum

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  12. T9

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  13. T9

    Caminero grounded out to third.

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

    +3pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  17. T9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Junior Caminero

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  18. T9

    Kittredge relieved Keller

    ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TB 4·CHC 6

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TB 4·CHC 6

  21. B8

    · ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  22. B8

    Crow-Armstrong lined out to second.

    · ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  23. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  24. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  25. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  26. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  28. B8

    Garrett Cleavinger pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    · ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  29. B8

    · ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

  30. B8

    Kelly flied out to right.

    · ·

    TB 4·CHC 6

    −1pp

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

4

Runs

6

5

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

8

TB

21

1

HR

1

2

BB

5

6

K

12

5

LOB

18

Player projections

CHC vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    59.4%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.4%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.2%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.32 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278