MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BOS

ATH

71-81

BOS

83-69

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

36,404 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
58.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.1%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.6± 3.6low
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.4± 2.0low

Hits

Jacob WilsonATH
1.2± 0.6high
Shea LangeliersATH
1.1± 0.9high
Zack GelofATH
1.1± 0.4high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.4± 2.7high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.8high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high
Jonah HeimATH
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 2.4low
Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.1± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

BOS

.735

OPS

◀

.715

.696

.326

OBP

◀

.319

.314

4.32

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.60

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.89

1.42

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

ATH 4 · BOS 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
ATH	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	4
BOS	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
N. Kurtz1B	.294	6	0	1	0	0	0	4
S. LangeliersC	.263	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
B. RookerDH	.267	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
T. SoderstromLF	.277	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. WilsonSS	.321	4	1	3	0	0	1	0
L. ButlerRF	.237	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
C. CortesRF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. HernaizSS	.243	4	0	1	3	0	0	1
B. Harris3B	.283	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. ThomasRF	.236	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. BledayLF	.215	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. Gelof3B	.184	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	4	10	4	0	6	12

Player

AVG

RBI

.294

.263

.267

.277

.321

.237

.333

.243

.283

.236

.215

.184

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. BarnettSP	4.0	5	3	2	3	2	90
B. BassoRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	6
T. FergusonRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	3	20
J. SternerRP	1.1	2	0	0	1	2	31
E. AlvaradoRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	30
M. KellyRP	0.1	0	1	0	1	0	4
Team	9.1	10	5	3	6	8	181

Player

4.0

0.1

1.1

1.1

2.0

0.1

Team

9.1

181

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. DuranLF	.262	4	0	3	0	0	1	0
T. StorySS	.266	4	1	2	1	0	1	0
A. Bregman3B	.272	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. YoshidaDH	.243	4	0	2	2	0	0	0
R. Gonzalez1B	.301	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. RefsnyderDH	.276	5	1	1	1	1	0	2
N. LoweDH	.261	2	1	1	0	0	3	0
C. NarvaezC	.246	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. RafaelaCF	.239	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. HamiltonSS	.199	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. EatonOF	.288	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
N. Sogard3B	.264	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		38	5	10	5	1	6	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. GiolitoSP	4.1	5	4	4	5	5	90
J. WilsonRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	16
J. SlatenRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	15
S. MatzSP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	11
G. WhitlockRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	15
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	19
Z. KellyRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	8
C. MurphyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
Team	10.0	10	4	4	6	12	178

Team

ATH

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.