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  • MLBBot 2
    PHI 1@LAD 0
    -13.2pphigh
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    NYY 0@ATH 2
    +53.5pplow
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    +42.6pplow
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    +58.9pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2ATH
ATH

ATH

72-81

5
3
BOS

BOS

83-70

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
32,838 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 5 · BOS 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH3010001005
BOS1100000103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 70-49
62%Last 30 · 333-208
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Sep 18·Final/SeriesATH wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Brent Rooker

Brent Rooker

DH

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Trevor Story

Trevor Story

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH72-81
5
3
BOS83-70
ATH72-81·BOS83-70
ATH

ATH

72-81

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
2-55220002
SPRINT26.530
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
1-44112102
SPRINT27.148
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-33210011
SPRINT26.632
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-33011010
SPRINT26.735
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT27.148
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
1-44010000
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
1-44010001
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
0-44000003
W. MacIverW. MacIver★C
0-44000001
Team8-35355831210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J.T. GinnJ.T. Ginn★SP
6.0522131
M. KellyM. KellyRP
1.0100010
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
2.0111031
Team9.0733172
BOS

BOS

83-70

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-44000000
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-44221101
SPRINT27.969
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-33010011
SPRINT25.818
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
0-22001000
SPRINT26.123
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-33010000
C. WongC. Wong★C
0-33000001
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
1-33111101
SPRINT29.294
N. EatonN. Eaton★OF
2-33020000
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-33000001
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez1B
0-11000000
C. NarvaezC. NarvaezC
0-11000001
R. RefsnyderR. RefsnyderDH
0-11000000
N. SogardN. Sogard3B
0-11000001
Team7-3232373217
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BelloB. Bello★SP
4.0543231
P. TolleP. TolleSP
3.0310040
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
2.0000030
Team9.08532101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J.T. Ginn
    98 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      46%·92.3 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      37%·84.8 mph·59% whiff
    • FC
      15%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      2%·86.7 mph·— whiff
  • H. Harris
    26 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      62%·94.4 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      19%·75.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      15%·84.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      4%·85.1 mph·— whiff
  • M. Kelly
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • ST
      42%·83.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      33%·90.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      17%·97.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.6 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • B. Bello
    70 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      27%·87.4 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      10%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Tolle
    50 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      80%·96.9 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      14%·89.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      6%·90.4 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    21 pitches·48% CSW
    • FF
      48%·93.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      38%·93.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      10%·85.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      5%·85.0 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

5

Runs

3

0

Errors

2

Current series

ATH wins series 2-1

Sep 16ATHATH2@BOSBOS1
Sep 17ATHATH4@BOSBOS5
Sep 18ATHATH5@BOSBOS3today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Sep 9BOSBOS7@ATHATH0
Sep 10BOSBOS6@ATHATH0
Sep 10BOSBOS4@ATHATH5
Sep 16ATHATH2@BOSBOS1
Sep 17ATHATH4@BOSBOS5
Sep 18ATHATH5@BOSBOS3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 1st Inning

ATHATH
B. Rooker

B. Rooker

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

J.T. Ginn

J.T. Ginn

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

BOSBOS
T. Story

T. Story

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Bello

B. Bello

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATH beat BOS 5-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 53% WP

Rooker · homered to left (397 feet), Butler scored.

BOSBottom 2nd Inning · 3-2
+11pp→ 59% WP

Hamilton · homered to right center (393 feet).

ATHTop 3rd Inning · 4-2
+12pp→ 58% WP

Wilson · reached on infield single to shortstop, Kurtz scored on throwing error by shortstop Story, Soderstrom safe at third on error.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH3010001005
BOS1100000103

Period scoring

ATH won 3 · BOS won 2

3
1

Inn 1

Rooker 2

Yoshida 1

0
1

Inn 2

Hamilton 1

1
0

Inn 3

Wilson 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Butler 1

0
1

Inn 8

Story 1

0
0

Inn 9

ATH
BOS

Play-by-play · 541 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  2. B9

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  3. B9

    Sogard struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

    −0.9pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  8. B9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Nick Sogard

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  9. B9

    Sogard hit for Hamilton

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  10. B9

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  11. B9

    Refsnyder lined out to center.

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

    −4pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  16. B9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Rob Refsnyder

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  17. B9

    Refsnyder hit for Wong

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  18. B9

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  19. B9

    Narváez struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

    −6pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  25. B9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Carlos Narvaez

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  26. B9

    Narváez hit for Lowe

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  29. T9

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

  30. T9

    Butler struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATH 5·BOS 3

    +0.5pp

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

5

Runs

3

8

Hits

7

0

Errors

2

13

TB

14

1

HR

2

2

BB

1

10

K

7

8

LOB

9

Player projections

BOS vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.7%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    58.9%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.0%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.8%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 9, 25sim 97
    183
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 97
    11
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 97
    114
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 97
    180
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    14
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 94
    14
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs