MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2SEA

SEA

86-69

HOU

84-71

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

42,065 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
48.9%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.6%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.6%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low
Bryce MillerSEA
5.8± 3.2low
Logan GilbertSEA
5.8± 2.5low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.2high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.2high
Cole YoungSEA
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.8± 1.9high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.5high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.7± 1.4high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.7± 2.8low
Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

HOU

.717

OPS

.715

▶

.730

.318

OBP

.319

.320

4.30

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.56

3.58

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.88

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 6 · HOU 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	1	1	1	0	2	0	1	0	0	6
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. ArozarenaLF	.235	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RaleighC	.246	4	2	1	1	1	1	2
J. RodriguezCF	.269	4	2	1	0	0	1	0
E. SuarezDH	.191	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
J. Polanco1B	.265	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.282	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
M. GarverC	.206	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. RoblesRF	.268	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J.P. CrawfordSS	.266	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. CanzoneDH	.300	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
Team		35	6	9	6	1	5	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.235

.246

.269

.191

.265

.282

.206

.268

.266

.300

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
G. KirbySP	6.0	5	0	0	0	7	100
C. VargasRP	1.0	3	4	4	0	0	16
E. BazardoRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	2	15
G. SpeierRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
A. MunozRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	14
Team	9.0	10	4	4	1	11	148

Player

G. KirbySP

6.0

100

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

148

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. PenaSS	.304	4	1	2	4	1	1	0
C. CorreaSS	.291	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
I. Paredes3B	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Altuve2B	.263	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.264	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Y. DiazC	.258	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. SanchezRF	.205	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. MeyersCF	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.240	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. DubonSS	.247	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Walker1B	.232	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. ColeLF	.261	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	4	10	4	1	1	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
F. ValdezSP	4.2	6	5	5	4	4	87
J. MurrayRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	29
C. GordonSP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	13
S. OkertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
B. AbreuRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	9	6	6	5	9	151

Team

SEA

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.