MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2SEA

SEA

84-69

76-77

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

18,137 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.1%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
47.8%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.8%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.6%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low
Bryce MillerSEA
5.8± 3.2low
Logan GilbertSEA
5.8± 2.5low

Hits

Jac CaglianoneKC
1.4± 1.3high
Michael MasseyKC
1.1± 1.1high
Vinnie PasquantinoKC
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.3± 2.8high
Michael MasseyKC
1.9± 2.3high
Colt EmersonSEA
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.6± 1.0high
Michael MasseyKC
0.6± 0.8high
Josh NaylorSEA
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

.717

OPS

◀

.715

.692

.318

OBP

.319

.315

4.30

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

3.58

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.45

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 2 · KC 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. ArozarenaLF	.239	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RaleighC	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. RodriguezCF	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.276	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
J. Polanco1B	.266	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
E. SuarezDH	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. CanzoneDH	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Rivas3B	.263	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J.P. CrawfordSS	.264	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
V. RoblesRF	.264	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	5	2	0	1	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.239

.247

.269

.276

.266

.182

.300

.263

.264

.264

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. CastilloSP	6.0	3	0	0	0	3	84
E. BazardoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
G. SpeierRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	10
A. MunozRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	17
Team	9.0	5	0	0	0	8	120

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

120

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. YastrzemskiLF	.221	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Witt Jr.SS	.291	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
V. Pasquantino1B	.265	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Garcia3B	.286	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. PerezC	.238	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Frazier2B	.277	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. CaglianoneRF	.157	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. JensenC	.320	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Massey2B	.219	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Tolbert2B	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RaveRF	.199	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. GrichukRF	.173	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. MaileC	.220	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. India2B	.234	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	0	5	0	0	0	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. KolekSP	7.1	2	2	1	1	8	99
D. Lynch IVRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	9
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	14
Team	9.0	5	2	1	1	8	122

Team

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.