HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBTop 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -18.1pphigh
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBMid 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBEnd 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA7:24 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 27
    +9.1pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BAL
BAL

BAL

59-67

4
3
BOS

BOS

68-59

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
37,435 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

BAL

league avg

BOS

BOS

.727

OPS

◀

.715

.696

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.314

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.53

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.89

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 4 · BOS 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
BAL000030000014
BOS001000002003

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 19·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1R. AnthonyBOS−58.6pp
  2. 2R. GonzalezBOS+58.2pp
  3. 3Y. HiraldoBAL−57.7pp

BAL · top performer

BAL
Colton Cowser

Colton Cowser

RF

0.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe

DH

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. Holliday2B
.2484110011
L. VazquezSS
.0775100010
G. HendersonSS
.2814010011
R. Mountcastle1B
.2575111002
C. CowserRF
.2103011020
C. Mayo3B
.2045010003
D. BeaversRF
.2863000012
D. CarlsonLF
.2034010011
A. JacksonC
.2084000001
- J. Jackson2B
.3331100001
- S. BasalloC
.3001001000
Team394630712

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. SuganoSP
5.05100385
K. AkinRP
2.00000019
K. StrowdRP
0.0200109
R. GarciaRP
1.00000312
Y. HiraldoRP
1.01224234
Y. CanoRP
1.00001012
C. MartinRP
1.00000010
Team11.083268181

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyLF
.2835020010
A. Bregman3B
.2984000020
J. DuranLF
.2614000011
T. StorySS
.2595010001
M. YoshidaDH
.2354000003
R. Gonzalez1B
.2944120010
N. LoweDH
.2504112110
A. Toro1B
.2395000002
C. WongC
.1804120001
- C. RafaelaCF
.2520000000
- N. EatonOF
.2500000000
Team39382168

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
W. BuehlerSP
4.04224475
J. WilsonRP
0.12110015
G. WeissertRP
1.10000218
S. MatzSP
1.10000215
J. HicksRP
1.00001118
B. BernardinoRP
1.0000006
A. ChapmanRP
1.00001313
G. WhitlockRP
1.00101016
Team11.0643712176

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • T. Sugano
    85 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      32%·93.3 mph·8% whiff
    • FS
      25%·87.9 mph·44% whiff
    • ST
      16%·83.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      15%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·79.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      2%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Hiraldo
    34 pitches·29% CSW
    • FS
      47%·87.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      32%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      21%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Akin
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      53%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      42%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    12 pitches·58% CSW
    • CH
      50%·88.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    12 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      33%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      25%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Martin
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      50%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      40%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·85.2 mph·— whiff
  • K. Strowd
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • ST
      44%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      33%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·96.3 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • W. Buehler
    75 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      36%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      12%·87.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      8%·75.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      1%·82.1 mph·— whiff
  • G. Weissert
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      33%·84.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      28%·93.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·85.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·79.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      6%·82.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hicks
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      33%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      17%·89.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      17%·83.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      11%·82.8 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      63%·95.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      38%·83.6 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Wilson
    15 pitches·7% CSW
    • FF
      47%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Matz
    15 pitches·60% CSW
    • SI
      67%·94.9 mph·60% whiff
    • CU
      20%·80.2 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    13 pitches·69% CSW
    • SI
      85%·98.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.1 mph·— whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      50%·90.0 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      33%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

4

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 4-2

May 22BALBAL0@BOSBOS0
May 23BALBAL5@BOSBOS19
May 23BALBAL0@BOSBOS0
May 24BALBAL5@BOSBOS6
May 24BALBAL2@BOSBOS1
May 25BALBAL5@BOSBOS1
Aug 18BALBAL6@BOSBOS3
Aug 19BALBAL4@BOSBOS3today

Season series

BAL leads series 5-4

Mar 31BOSBOS5@BALBAL8
Apr 2BOSBOS3@BALBAL0
Apr 3BOSBOS8@BALBAL4
May 22BALBAL0@BOSBOS0
May 23BALBAL5@BOSBOS19
May 23BALBAL0@BOSBOS0
May 24BALBAL5@BOSBOS6
May 24BALBAL2@BOSBOS1
May 25BALBAL5@BOSBOS1
Aug 18BALBAL6@BOSBOS3
Aug 19BALBAL4@BOSBOS3today
Aug 25BOSBOS4@BALBAL3
Aug 26BOSBOS5@BALBAL0
Aug 27BOSBOS3@BALBAL2
Aug 28BOSBOS3@BALBAL2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 49pp · Bottom 9th Inning

BALBAL
C. Cowser

C. Cowser

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.933 OPS

T. Sugano

T. Sugano

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 5 H

BOSBOS
N. Lowe

N. Lowe

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

W. Buehler

W. Buehler

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

BAL beat BOS 4-3. Lowe's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (49pp).

Last play

End of the 11th inning

Win probability

BOS vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 9th Inning · 3-3
+49pp→ 68% WP

Lowe · homered to right center (424 feet), González scored.

BALTop 11th Inning · 3-3
+25pp→ 42% WP

Carlson · grounded out to first, J. Jackson to third.

BALBottom 11th Inning · 4-3
+39pp→ 81% WP

Anthony · flied out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
BAL000030000014
BOS001000002003

Period scoring

BAL won 2 · BOS won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Story 1

0
0

Inn 4

3
0

Inn 5

Mountcastle 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

Lowe 2

0
0

Inn 10

1
0

Inn 11

Basallo 1

BAL
BOS

Play-by-play · 710 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 11

    End of the 11th inning

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  2. B11

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  3. B11

    Bregman popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

    −19pp

  4. B11

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  5. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  6. B11

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  7. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  8. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  9. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  10. B11

    Corbin Martin pitches to Alex Bregman

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  11. B11

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  12. B11

    Anthony flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

    −39pp

  13. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  14. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  15. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  16. B11

    Corbin Martin pitches to Roman Anthony

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  17. B11

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  18. B11

    Wong hit sacrifice bunt to third, Eaton to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

    +10pp

  19. B11

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  20. B11

    Corbin Martin pitches to Connor Wong

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  21. B11

    Martin relieved Cano

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  22. B11

    Basallo catching.

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  23. B11

    Eaton ran for Toro

    ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  24. B11

    Bottom of the 11th inning

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  25. M11

    Middle of the 11th inning

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  26. T11

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  27. T11

    Vázquez fouled out to catcher.

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

    +4pp

  28. T11

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  29. T11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

  30. T11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 4·BOS 3

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

4

Runs

3

6

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

9

TB

11

0

HR

1

7

BB

6

12

K

8

24

LOB

31

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BOS vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.0± 3.9low
  • Ranger SuarezBOS
    5.6± 3.6low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.4± 2.0low

Hits

  • Taylor WardBAL
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.9± 2.9high
  • Caleb DurbinBOS
    1.8± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.1± 1.6high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Coby MayoBAL
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.4low
  • Jake BennettBOS
    3.0± 2.3low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    59.4%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.1%

    P(BOS win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.7%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.