MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5TOR

BAL

69-78

TOR

85-62

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

34,376 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.7%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
59.5%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.9%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.9%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Trey YesavageTOR
5.8± 2.2low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.6± 3.0low
Shane BazBAL
5.3± 2.1low

Hits

Nathan LukesTOR
1.3± 1.1high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.2± 0.8high
Leody TaverasBAL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ernie ClementTOR
2.1± 2.0high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.9± 2.7high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 1.3high
Jesus SanchezTOR
0.7± 1.2high
Blaze AlexanderBAL
0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.8low
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 2.3low
Chris BassittBAL
2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

BAL 1 · TOR 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
TOR	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Holliday★2B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
J. Jackson★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
SPRINT26.530
G. Henderson★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT28.175
R. Mountcastle★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Beavers★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT29.194
T. O'Neill★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. Cowser★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Basallo★C	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.310
E. Rivera★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	3-29	29	1	3	1	0	4	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-3

0-4

0-3

0-4

1-3

0-3

0-3

1-3

0-3

Team

3-29

	Pitching
T. Rogers★SP	5.0	3	1	0	4	6	0
D. EnnsRP	1.1	3	2	1	1	0	0
S. DubinRP	1.2	4	3	3	1	1	0
Team	8.0	10	6	4	6	7	0

Pitching

Player

T. Rogers★SP

5.0

D. EnnsRP

1.1

S. DubinRP

1.2

Team

8.0

	Batting
G. Springer★DH	1-3	3	2	1	0	0	2	2
SPRINT25.920
D. Schneider★LF	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
V. Guerrero Jr.★1B	3-3	3	0	3	1	0	2	0
SPRINT26.123
A. Kirk★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Clement★2B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. France★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Kiner-Falefa★2B	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.560
M. Straw★RF	2-3	3	1	2	1	0	1	1
SPRINT29.597
A. Gimenez★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. VarshoCF	1-1	1	1	1	2	0	0	0
SPRINT26.838

Team	10-33	33	6	10	5	0	6	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI