MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TOR

BAL

69-79

TOR

86-62

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

42,461 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
60.6%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.4%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Trey YesavageTOR
5.5± 2.0low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.1low

Hits

Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 1.0high
Taylor WardBAL
1.2± 1.1high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.1± 2.0high
Ernie ClementTOR
2.1± 2.3high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.6high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 0.9high
Coby MayoBAL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

TOR

.727

OPS

◀

.715

.702

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.314

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.53

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.08

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.27

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

BAL 4 · TOR 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	4
TOR	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	3	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Holliday2B	.252	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
D. BeaversRF	.299	1	1	0	0	0	3	0
G. HendersonSS	.270	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
T. O'NeillRF	.207	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
S. BasalloC	.189	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. Rivera3B	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CowserRF	.201	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. CarlsonLF	.205	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mayo3B	.191	4	1	2	1	1	0	2
Team		33	4	7	4	1	4	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.252

.299

.270

.207

.189

.244

.201

.205

.191

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. SuganoSP	6.0	4	1	1	0	4	63
R. GarciaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	19
K. StrowdRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	14
K. AkinRP	0.2	2	1	1	1	0	12
Y. CanoRP	0.1	3	2	1	0	0	16
Team	8.2	12	5	4	2	5	124

Player

6.0

1.0

0.2

0.2

0.1

Team

8.2

124

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. SpringerDH	.299	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
N. LukesRF	.256	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.305	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. BargerRF	.251	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
D. SchneiderLF	.238	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. VarshoCF	.236	4	1	1	0	0	0	3
E. Clement2B	.277	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.307	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.212	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
A. KirkC	.287	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.316	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. France1B	.305	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.268	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.349	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		34	5	12	5	1	2	5

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. ScherzerSP	5.0	4	2	2	2	5	91
T. NanceRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	5
E. LauerSP	1.2	0	1	1	1	2	22
S. DominguezRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	0	11
B. FisherRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	20
Team	9.0	7	4	4	4	8	149

Team

BAL

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.