• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Live · 4
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 1@ATH 2
    +47.1ppmedium
  • MLBTop 6
    PHI 1@LAD 2
    +23.8ppmedium
  • MLBTop 6
    ARI 0@SEA 4
    +46.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SF 0@COL 8
    +58.9pplow
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+6TOR
HOU

HOU

79-68

0
6
TOR

TOR

84-62

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
41,224 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

HOU 0 · TOR 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0000000000
TOR210100026

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 9, 25sim 98
    183
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 98
    11
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 97
    115
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 96
    72
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    183
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 96
    112
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Sep 11·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Houston Astros, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jeremy Pena

Jeremy Pena

SS

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Davis Schneider

Davis Schneider

LF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU79-68
0
6
TOR84-62
HOU79-68·TOR84-62
HOU

HOU

79-68

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-33010012
SPRINT28.483
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-44000001
SPRINT24.64
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT27.251
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-33000001
SPRINT27.867
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-33000002
SPRINT25.818
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
0-33000000
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33000000
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
0-33000001
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-33000000
Team2-2929020019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. JavierC. Javier★SP
6.0644161
L. McCullers Jr.L. McCullers Jr.SP
2.0220100
Team8.0864261
TOR

TOR

84-62

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-33210011
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
2-44221001
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-44010000
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-44011001
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-44000001
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
2-44121001
SPRINT26.838
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
1-33112100
SPRINT26.838
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
0-33000001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-22000010
Team8-3131685126
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
9.0200190
Team9.0200190

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • C. Javier
    87 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      33%·92.0 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      24%·83.9 mph·27% whiff
    • ST
      22%·78.5 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      10%·75.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.4 mph·29% whiff
  • L. McCullers Jr.
    30 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      47%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      30%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·81.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      10%·84.7 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    100 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      55%·95.0 mph·7% whiff
    • FS
      37%·84.2 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.3 mph·25% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

8

0

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

Sep 9HOUHOU3@TORTOR4
Sep 10HOUHOU3@TORTOR2
Sep 11HOUHOU0@TORTOR6today

Season series

HOU wins series 4-2

Apr 22TORTOR0@HOUHOU7
Apr 23TORTOR1@HOUHOU5
Apr 23TORTOR1@HOUHOU3
Sep 9HOUHOU3@TORTOR4
Sep 10HOUHOU3@TORTOR2
Sep 11HOUHOU0@TORTOR6today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 1st Inning

HOUHOU
J. Pena

J. Pena

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

C. Javier

C. Javier

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
D. Schneider

D. Schneider

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcherGem

9.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat HOU 6-0.

Win probability

TOR vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 82% WP

Lukes · doubled to left, Springer scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0000000000
TOR21010002—6

Period scoring

HOU won 0 · TOR won 4

0
2

Inn 1

Lukes 1

0
1

Inn 2

Schneider 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Schneider 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Springer 1

0

Inn 9

HOU
TOR

Play-by-play · 446 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  2. T9

    Correa grounded out to first.

    · ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  5. T9

    Kevin Gausman pitches to Carlos Correa

    · ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  6. T9

    · ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  7. T9

    Alvarez grounded out to shortstop, Peña to second.

    · ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  12. T9

    Kevin Gausman pitches to Yordan Alvarez

    · ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  13. T9

    ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  14. T9

    Peña walked.

    ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  21. T9

    Kevin Gausman pitches to Jeremy Pena

    ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  22. T9

    ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  23. T9

    Dubón grounded out to second.

    ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  25. T9

    Kevin Gausman pitches to Mauricio Dubon

    ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  26. T9

    Straw in left field.

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  29. B8

    · ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

  30. B8

    Schneider grounded out to third.

    · ·

    HOU 0·TOR 6

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

0

Runs

6

2

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

2

TB

15

0

HR

1

1

BB

2

9

K

6

7

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

TOR vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    2.4± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.0%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    59.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.2%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.9%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.