MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TOR

TOR

89-62

73-78

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida

8,908 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
42.1%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.5%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.6%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Trey YesavageTOR
5.5± 2.0low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.3high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 1.0high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.1± 1.7high
Ernie ClementTOR
2.1± 2.3high
Junior CamineroTB
1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high
Yandy DiazTB
0.8± 0.9high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low
Steven MatzTB
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

.702

OPS

.715

▶

.719

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.335

4.13

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.50

4.08

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.95

1.27

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.23

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 6 · TB 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	1	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	6
TB	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. SpringerDH	.307	5	1	3	2	0	0	0
N. LukesRF	.256	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.302	5	0	2	1	0	0	0
A. BargerRF	.252	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
A. KirkC	.291	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. SchneiderLF	.243	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
E. Clement2B	.277	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
A. GimenezSS	.208	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
M. StrawRF	.264	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. LoperfidoLF	.348	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		35	6	11	6	2	3	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.307

.256

.302

.252

.291

.243

.277

.208

.264

.348

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. BerriosSP	4.0	4	3	3	2	0	78
T. NanceRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	2	19
E. LauerSP	1.1	2	0	0	0	2	22
Y. RodriguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
B. LittleRP	0.1	1	1	1	2	0	16
S. DominguezRP	1.0	0	1	1	1	1	18
J. HoffmanRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	2	19
Team	9.0	10	5	5	6	8	184

Player

4.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

0.1

1.0

0.2

Team

9.0

184

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. SimpsonLF	.291	4	2	1	0	0	1	1
Y. DiazDH	.296	4	1	2	0	0	1	1
B. Lowe2B	.258	5	1	2	4	1	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.260	3	0	1	0	0	2	1
J. LoweLF	.228	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
J. MangumLF	.291	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Gray3B	.264	4	0	3	1	0	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.164	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Seymour1B	.208	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Morel1B	.227	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. WilliamsSS	.156	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. FortesC	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	5	10	5	1	6	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. PepiotSP	1.2	4	4	4	3	3	49
J. GerberRP	2.1	3	1	1	0	2	31
K. KellyRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	3	17
C. SulserRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	1	23
B. BakerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	11	6	6	3	9	129

Team

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.