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Live · 4
  • MLBBot 5
    NYY 1@ATH 2
    +42.6ppmedium
  • MLBMid 5
    PHI 1@LAD 2
    +21.5ppmedium
  • MLBBot 5
    ARI 0@SEA 4
    +46.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SF 0@COL 8
    +58.9pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5TEX
TEX

TEX

78-70

8
3
NYM

NYM

76-72

Citi Field · Queens, New York
41,040 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 8 · NYM 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX6000002008
NYM0030000003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 17, 25sim 96
    123
    21(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    63
    11(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 95
    125
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 95
    164
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 95
    26
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    169
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Sep 12·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into New York Mets and beat them, 8–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Dylan Moore

Dylan Moore

CF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

C

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX78-70
8
3
NYM76-72
TEX78-70·NYM76-72
TEX

TEX

78-70

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
2-44120010
SPRINT27.354
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-33100011
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-11100020
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
2-55020000
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
2-55121001
SPRINT25.920
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
1-55111000
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
0-44100011
C. FreemanC. Freeman★3B
1-44112000
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
2-44022000
D. MooreD. MooreCF
1-11112100
R. TellezR. Tellez1B
0-11000000
Team11-37378118153
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
7.0433021
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0100010
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.0000020
Team9.0533051
NYM

NYM

76-72

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-33001000
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-33001000
SPRINT25.29
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-44000001
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44010001
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-22000001
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-33000001
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
2-33121100
SPRINT25.716
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-33110000
SPRINT27.662
R. MauricioR. MauricioSS
0-11000000
Team5-3030353105
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. TongJ. Tong★SP
0.2466310
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
3.1200100
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.2000010
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.1222111
R. GarrettR. GarrettRP
1.0200000
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0100000
Team9.01188531

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • J. deGrom
    88 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      56%·98.0 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      32%·91.6 mph·8% whiff
    • CU
      9%·81.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      3%·90.8 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
  • P. Maton
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • CU
      46%·77.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      23%·91.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      15%·90.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      15%·83.7 mph·100% whiff

NYM

  • H. Brazoban
    51 pitches·22% CSW
    • CH
      39%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      39%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Tong
    40 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.9 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      40%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·77.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      3%·86.8 mph·— whiff
  • G. Soto
    28 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      39%·96.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      7%·96.7 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      76%·97.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      12%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garrett
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      40%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      20%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·81.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

5

8

Runs

3

0

Errors

2

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

Sep 12TEXTEX8@NYMNYM3today
Sep 13TEXTEX3@NYMNYM2
Sep 14TEXTEX2@NYMNYM5

Season series

TEX leads series 1-0

Sep 12TEXTEX8@NYMNYM3today
Sep 13TEXTEX3@NYMNYM2
Sep 14TEXTEX2@NYMNYM5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 1st Inning

TEXTEX
D. Moore

D. Moore

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 4 H

NYMNYM
F. Alvarez

F. Alvarez

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

H. Brazoban

H. Brazoban

RP

Top reliever

3.1 IP · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TEX beat NYM 8-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 69% WP

Jung · singled to right, Smith scored, Pederson to third.

TEXTop 1st Inning · 4-0
+10pp→ 88% WP

Freeman · singled to right, Jung scored and Osuna scored, Heim to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX6000002008
NYM0030000003

Period scoring

TEX won 2 · NYM won 1

6
0

Inn 1

Freeman 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Alvarez 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Moore 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

TEX
NYM

Play-by-play · 553 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  2. B9

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  3. B9

    Vientos struck out looking.

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  10. B9

    Phil Maton pitches to Mark Vientos

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  11. B9

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  12. B9

    Nimmo struck out swinging.

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  17. B9

    Phil Maton pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  18. B9

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  19. B9

    Alonso lined out to left.

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

    −0.5pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  23. B9

    Phil Maton pitches to Pete Alonso

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  24. B9

    Maton relieved R. Garcia

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  27. T9

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  28. T9

    Heim grounded out to first.

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 8·NYM 3

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

8

Runs

3

11

Hits

5

0

Errors

2

17

TB

9

1

HR

1

5

BB

0

3

K

5

18

LOB

5

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

NYM vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.1%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    46.0%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.5%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.1%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.