HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBEnd 2
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -12.8pphigh
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBBot 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBMid 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA8:05 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 25
    +3.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3BOS
BOS

BOS

85-70

6
3
TB

TB

75-80

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
10,046 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

BOS

league avg

TB

TB

.696

OPS

.715

▶

.721

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.50

3.89

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.93

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.23

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 6 · TB 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0010110036
TB0001002003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 20·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Tampa Bay Rays and beat them, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1C. RafaelaBOS+59.5pp
  2. 2J. CamineroTB−46.3pp
  3. 3A. HouserTB−44.5pp

BOS · top performer

BOS
Romy Gonzalez

Romy Gonzalez

1B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Jake Mangum

Jake Mangum

LF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranLF
.2614110013
T. StorySS
.2654111010
A. Bregman3B
.2755121001
M. YoshidaDH
.2455021000
R. Gonzalez1B
.3032121010
N. EatonOF
.2994000000
N. LoweDH
.2693011000
C. NarvaezC
.2404000000
C. RafaelaCF
.2443210011
- D. HamiltonSS
.2010000000
Team346105045

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
K. HarrisonSP
6.04112586
J. WilsonRP
0.21221022
J. SlatenRP
0.1100006
G. WhitlockRP
1.01000113
A. ChapmanRP
1.00001127
Team9.073347154

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonLF
.2975000000
Y. DiazDH
.3023021010
J. Caminero3B
.2583000011
B. Lowe2B
.2584110001
J. MangumLF
.2984031001
C. Morel1B
.2194000001
J. LoweLF
.2233100011
N. FortesC
.1954111000
C. WilliamsSS
.1823000012
Team33373047

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
A. HouserSP
6.053332102
J. ScholtensRP
3.05311362
Team9.0106445164

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • K. Harrison
    86 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.0 mph·29% whiff
    • SV
      29%·80.2 mph·19% whiff
    • FC
      15%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·82.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      5%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • UN
      1%·60.2 mph·— whiff
  • A. Chapman
    27 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      59%·97.9 mph·18% whiff
    • SI
      22%·100.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      7%·91.2 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Wilson
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      55%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      18%·85.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      14%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      38%·95.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      38%·86.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      23%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Slaten
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      50%·86.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      33%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·92.8 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • A. Houser
    102 pitches·16% CSW
    • SI
      39%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·89.6 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      16%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Scholtens
    62 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      40%·88.2 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      39%·95.6 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      19%·81.5 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      2%·84.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

7

6

Runs

3

0

Errors

3

Current series

BOS wins series 4-2

Apr 14BOSBOS1@TBTB16
Apr 15BOSBOS7@TBTB4
Apr 16BOSBOS1@TBTB0
Sep 19BOSBOS11@TBTB7
Sep 20BOSBOS6@TBTB3today
Sep 21BOSBOS3@TBTB7

Season series

BOS leads series 10-2

Apr 14BOSBOS1@TBTB16
Apr 15BOSBOS7@TBTB4
Apr 16BOSBOS1@TBTB0
Jun 9TBTB10@BOSBOS8
Jun 10TBTB1@BOSBOS3
Jun 11TBTB3@BOSBOS4
Jul 10TBTB3@BOSBOS4
Jul 11TBTB4@BOSBOS5
Jul 12TBTB0@BOSBOS1
Jul 13TBTB1@BOSBOS4
Sep 19BOSBOS11@TBTB7
Sep 20BOSBOS6@TBTB3today
Sep 21BOSBOS3@TBTB7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 28pp · Top 9th Inning

BOSBOS
R. Gonzalez

R. Gonzalez

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

K. Harrison

K. Harrison

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

TBTB
J. Mangum

J. Mangum

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

BOS beat TB 6-3. Story's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TB vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 7th Inning · 3-2
+21pp→ 46% WP

Fortes · doubled to left, J. Lowe scored.

TBBottom 7th Inning · 3-3
+21pp→ 53% WP

Díaz singled to right, Fortes scored.

BOSTop 9th Inning · 4-3
+28pp→ 87% WP

Story · singled to right, Rafaela scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0010110036
TB0001002003

Period scoring

BOS won 4 · TB won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Story 1

0
1

Inn 4

Mangum 1

1
0

Inn 5

Bregman 1

1
0

Inn 6

Lowe 1

0
2

Inn 7

Fortes 1

0
0

Inn 8

3
0

Inn 9

Story 1

BOS
TB

Play-by-play · 616 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 6·TB 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  3. B9

    Simpson grounded out to third.

    · ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  11. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Chandler Simpson

    · ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  12. B9

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  13. B9

    Williams walked.

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

    +0.9pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 11 : Ball 4

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 3

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  25. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Carson Williams

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  26. B9

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  27. B9

    Fortes grounded out to third.

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

    −1pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 6·TB 3

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

TB

Home

6

Runs

3

10

Hits

7

0

Errors

3

10

TB

9

0

HR

0

4

BB

4

5

K

7

21

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993

Player projections

TB vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.0± 3.9low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    6.0± 4.2low
  • Ranger SuarezBOS
    5.6± 3.6low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.1± 1.7high
  • Caleb DurbinBOS
    1.8± 2.6high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Ryan ViladeTB
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Caleb DurbinBOS
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Jake BennettBOS
    3.0± 2.3low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    2.1± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.0%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    45.1%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.0%

    P(TB win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.2%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.