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FINAL+4NYM
SEA

SEA

68-57

3
7
NYM

NYM

66-58

Journey Bank Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field · Williamsport, Pennsylvania

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

SEA 3 · NYM 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0001002003
NYM030040007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 70-49
62%Last 30 · 333-208
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 29, 25sim 98
    134
    3(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 98
    169
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 97
    106
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    194
    3(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 96
    138
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 96
    195
    3(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 17·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off Seattle Mariners, 7–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh

C

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Mark Vientos

Mark Vientos

1B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA68-57
3
7
NYM66-58
SEA68-57·NYM66-58
SEA

SEA

68-57

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-44110002
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
2-55122101
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-55120001
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-55000001
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT25.818
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
2-44021001
SPRINT25.310
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-22010020
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-33010010
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-44000000
Team10-36363103138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
4.21277341
T. SaucedoT. SaucedoRP
2.1100030
J. KowarJ. KowarRP
1.0100120
Team8.01477491
NYM

NYM

66-58

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
3-55031001
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-22000030
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-55010002
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44110013
SPRINT25.29
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
2-55220000
SPRINT25.920
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
3-44231000
SPRINT25.716
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-44011001
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
2-33124100
SPRINT25.513
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-44110002
Team14-36367147149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HolmesC. Holmes★SP
5.0511140
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0100110
R. GarrettR. GarrettRP
1.0222011
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0000120
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0200000
Team9.01033381

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • G. Kirby
    97 pitches·28% CSW
    • ST
      31%·88.2 mph·30% whiff
    • KC
      24%·85.6 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      23%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·97.4 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      2%·86.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      1%·88.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Saucedo
    29 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      41%·91.7 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      24%·80.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      21%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      10%·91.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      3%·84.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Kowar
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      72%·86.4 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      28%·98.1 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • C. Holmes
    88 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      32%·94.0 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      30%·82.9 mph·15% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·86.4 mph·80% whiff
    • FC
      6%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      54%·99.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      42%·88.9 mph·60% whiff
    • CU
      4%·80.8 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garrett
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • FS
      32%·89.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      27%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·86.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      14%·91.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      5%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Raley
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      33%·91.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      29%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      24%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.4 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      79%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·74.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

14

3

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

Aug 15SEASEA11@NYMNYM9
Aug 16SEASEA1@NYMNYM3
Aug 17SEASEA3@NYMNYM7today

Season series

NYM win series 2-1

Aug 15SEASEA11@NYMNYM9
Aug 16SEASEA1@NYMNYM3
Aug 17SEASEA3@NYMNYM7today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 5th Inning

SEASEA
C. Raleigh

C. Raleigh

C

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 7 ER · 12 H · 3 BB

NYMNYM
M. Vientos

M. Vientos

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

C. Holmes

C. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYM beat SEA 7-3.

Win probability

NYM vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 57% WP

Lindor · singled to right.

NYMBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+15pp→ 77% WP

Alvarez · doubled to center, Alonso scored, McNeil to third.

NYMBottom 5th Inning · 1-6
+15pp→ 96% WP

Vientos · homered to right (385 feet), McNeil scored and Alvarez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0001002003
NYM03004000—7

Period scoring

SEA won 2 · NYM won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
3

Inn 2

Alvarez 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Polanco 1

0
4

Inn 5

Vientos 3

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Raleigh 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SEA
NYM

Play-by-play · 602 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  2. T9

    Naylor grounded out to second.

    · ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  4. T9

    Tyler Rogers pitches to Josh Naylor

    · ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  5. T9

    · ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  6. T9

    Rodríguez singled to right, Raleigh to third.

    · ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

    −0.8pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  9. T9

    Tyler Rogers pitches to Julio Rodriguez

    · ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  10. T9

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  11. T9

    Raleigh singled to left.

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  14. T9

    Tyler Rogers pitches to Cal Raleigh

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  15. T9

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  16. T9

    Arozarena popped out to second.

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

    +0.5pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  21. T9

    Tyler Rogers pitches to Randy Arozarena

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  22. T9

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  23. T9

    Young fouled out to third.

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

    +0.8pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  29. T9

    Tyler Rogers pitches to Cole Young

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

  30. T9

    Rogers relieved Helsley

    ·

    SEA 3·NYM 7

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

3

Runs

7

10

Hits

14

0

Errors

0

15

TB

21

1

HR

1

3

BB

4

8

K

9

17

LOB

21

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

NYM vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 67 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    46.3%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.2%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.9%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.