HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+5ATH
DET

DET

78-55

3
8
ATH

ATH

61-72

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
8,105 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

DET

league avg

ATH

ATH

.705

OPS

.717

▶

.747

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.330

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.51

3.94

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.85

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

8.2

K / 9

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

DET 3 · ATH 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0000030003
ATH000001528

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Aug 25·Final/SeriesATH wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Athletics held off Detroit Tigers, 8–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1T. SkubalDET−69.4pp
  2. 2D. HernaizATH+57.8pp
  3. 3T. SoderstromATH+51.0pp

DET · top performer

DET
Kerry Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter

RF

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz

1B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. Keith3B
.2593000001
G. Torres2B
.2624111111
K. CarpenterRF
.2644130011
R. GreeneLF
.2664120002
S. Torkelson1B
.2423000011
W. PerezRF
.2674022001
Z. McKinstry2B
.2634000001
D. DinglerC
.2713010011
T. SweeneySS
.2102010001
- J. JonesDH
.2472000001
- A. Ibanez2B
.2542000000
Team3531031411

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. SkubalSP
6.276101299
B. HanifeeRP
0.2111005
D. SommersRP
0.22110114
Team8.01083013118

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. LangeliersC
.2624114102
J. WilsonSS
.3124001000
B. RookerDH
.2664000002
C. ThomasRF
.2623111101
D. HernaizSS
.2623120001
T. SoderstromLF
.2734130001
B. Harris3B
.1944100001
Z. Gelof3B
.0694000004
J. BledayLF
.2123110001
- L. ButlerRF
.2281110000
- N. Kurtz1B
.3081112100
Team3581083013

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J.T. GinnSP
5.17331884
S. NewcombRP
1.12002233
M. KellyRP
1.11001016
E. AlvaradoRP
1.00000111
Team9.01033411144

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

ATH

  • E. Alvarado
    38 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      63%·99.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      24%·90.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      11%·98.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·89.6 mph·— whiff
  • M. Kelly
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      59%·82.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·91.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

10

3

Runs

8

2

Errors

0

Current series

ATH wins series 3-0

Aug 26DETDET3@ATHATH8today
Aug 27DETDET6@ATHATH7
Aug 28DETDET0@ATHATH7

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Jun 24ATHATH4@DETDET11
Jun 25ATHATH3@DETDET0
Jun 26ATHATH0@DETDET8
Aug 26DETDET3@ATHATH8today
Aug 27DETDET6@ATHATH7
Aug 28DETDET0@ATHATH7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 55pp · Bottom 7th Inning

DETDET
K. Carpenter

K. Carpenter

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.550 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 12 K · 1 ER · 7 H

ATHATH
N. Kurtz

N. Kurtz

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

J.T. Ginn

J.T. Ginn

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATH beat DET 8-3. Langeliers's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (55pp).

Win probability

ATH vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 6th Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 76% WP

Torres · homered to left center (417 feet).

ATHBottom 7th Inning · 3-2
+21pp→ 60% WP

Soderstrom · doubled to right, Hernaiz to third.

ATHBottom 7th Inning · 3-6
+55pp→ 93% WP

Langeliers · homered to left center (450 feet), Hernaiz scored, Soderstrom scored and B. Harris scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0000030003
ATH00000152—8

Period scoring

DET won 1 · ATH won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

3
1

Inn 6

Torres 1

Wilson 1

0
5

Inn 7

Langeliers 4

0
2

Inn 8

Kurtz 2

0

Inn 9

DET
ATH

Play-by-play · 537 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  2. T9

    Carpenter struck out swinging.

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  6. T9

    Elvis Alvarado pitches to Kerry Carpenter

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  7. T9

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  8. T9

    Torres grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  13. T9

    Elvis Alvarado pitches to Gleyber Torres

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  14. T9

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  15. T9

    Jones grounded out to second.

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  20. T9

    Elvis Alvarado pitches to Jahmai Jones

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  21. T9

    Alvarado relieved Kelly

    ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  22. T9

    B. Harris at third base.

    DET 3·ATH 8

  23. T9

    Kurtz at first base.

    DET 3·ATH 8

  24. T9

    Butler in center field.

    DET 3·ATH 8

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    DET 3·ATH 8

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    DET 3·ATH 8

  27. B8

    · ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  28. B8

    Gelof struck out looking.

    · ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 3·ATH 8

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

3

Runs

8

10

Hits

10

2

Errors

0

16

TB

21

1

HR

3

4

BB

0

11

K

13

18

LOB

15

Player projections

ATH vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Tarik SkubalDET
    6.1± 2.9low
  • J.T. GinnATH
    5.0± 2.9medium
  • Gage JumpATH
    4.8± 1.7low

Hits

  • Gleyber TorresDET
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Shea LangeliersATH
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Shea LangeliersATH
    2.5± 2.5high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    2.3± 3.0high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    2.3± 3.5high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    3.2± 1.8medium
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.8± 2.6low
  • Keider MonteroDET
    2.3± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.5%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    47.5%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.0%

    P(ATH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.1%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.