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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3CIN
CHC

CHC

88-66

4
7
CIN

CIN

78-76

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
25,584 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CHC 4 · CIN 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0112000004
CIN101113007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 17, 25sim 98
    125
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 97
    225
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 7, 25sim 96
    128
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    63
    11(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 95
    138
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 95
    163
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Sep 19·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds held off Chicago Cubs, 7–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Matt Shaw

Matt Shaw

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Spencer Steer

Spencer Steer

LF

3.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC88-66
4
7
CIN78-76
CHC88-66·CIN78-76
CHC

CHC

88-66

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-55110001
SPRINT28.278
I. HappI. Happ★LF
2-55021001
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-22000020
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
2-44020001
J. TurnerJ. Turner★1B
1-33010002
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44111102
SPRINT27.867
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
0-22000001
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
2-44120001
SPRINT29.294
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
2-44122100
SPRINT28.992
M. BuschM. Busch1B
0-22000001
Team11-353541142310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ImanagaS. Imanaga★SP
5.0443243
P. HodgeP. HodgeRP
1.0333122
T. RogersT. RogersRP
2.0000200
Team8.0776565
CIN

CIN

78-76

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-44011001
SPRINT26.838
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
0-44000000
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-44111101
SPRINT26.530
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-44110001
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
2-33223210
SPRINT28.483
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-22111121
SPRINT2872
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-22100020
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
0-33000000
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
1-33111102
SPRINT28.586
Team7-2929777556
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. LodoloN. Lodolo★SP
4.2944272
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
1.1000020
N. MartinezN. MartinezSP
1.0100000
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0000110
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0100000
Team9.011443102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • S. Imanaga
    83 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      35%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·80.5 mph·24% whiff
    • FS
      30%·83.4 mph·42% whiff
    • SI
      2%·88.4 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    36 pitches·22% CSW
    • ST
      56%·77.4 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      44%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Hodge
    31 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      48%·85.7 mph·20% whiff

CIN

  • N. Lodolo
    94 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      33%·94.0 mph·41% whiff
    • CU
      30%·81.6 mph·57% whiff
    • CH
      21%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      16%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Pagan
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      67%·95.7 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      28%·86.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      6%·82.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Phillips
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • ST
      65%·86.8 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      29%·98.8 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·85.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Santillan
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      79%·97.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SV
      21%·86.3 mph·— whiff
  • N. Martinez
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      45%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      27%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·90.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

7

4

Runs

7

1

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 5-2

May 23CHCCHC13@CINCIN6
May 24CHCCHC4@CINCIN6
May 25CHCCHC11@CINCIN8
Sep 18CHCCHC0@CINCIN1
Sep 19CHCCHC4@CINCIN7today
Sep 20CHCCHC3@CINCIN6
Sep 21CHCCHC0@CINCIN1

Season series

CIN leads series 6-5

May 23CHCCHC13@CINCIN6
May 24CHCCHC4@CINCIN6
May 25CHCCHC11@CINCIN8
May 30CINCIN6@CHCCHC2
May 31CINCIN0@CHCCHC2
Jun 1CINCIN3@CHCCHC7
Aug 5CINCIN3@CHCCHC2
Aug 6CINCIN5@CHCCHC1
Aug 6CINCIN1@CHCCHC6
Sep 18CHCCHC0@CINCIN1
Sep 19CHCCHC4@CINCIN7today
Sep 20CHCCHC3@CINCIN6
Sep 21CHCCHC0@CINCIN1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 6th Inning

CHCCHC
M. Shaw

M. Shaw

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

CINCIN
S. Steer

S. Steer

LF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-3 · 2 HR · 3.417 OPS

N. Lodolo

N. Lodolo

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 9 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CIN beat CHC 7-4. Steer's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Win probability

CIN vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 4th Inning · 4-2
+25pp→ 72% WP

Shaw · homered to left (391 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.

CINBottom 5th Inning · 4-4
+14pp→ 53% WP

Friedl · singled to left, Hayes scored.

CINBottom 6th Inning · 4-6
+27pp→ 82% WP

Steer · homered to left center (389 feet), Hays scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0112000004
CIN10111300—7

Period scoring

CHC won 2 · CIN won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Andujar 1

1
0

Inn 2

Swanson 1

1
1

Inn 3

Happ 1

McLain 1

2
1

Inn 4

Shaw 2

Steer 1

0
1

Inn 5

Friedl 1

0
3

Inn 6

Steer 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHC
CIN

Play-by-play · 571 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  2. T9

    Happ flied out to left.

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  9. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Ian Happ

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  10. T9

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  11. T9

    Hoerner lined out to third.

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

    +3pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  16. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Nico Hoerner

    · ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  17. T9

    ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  18. T9

    Shaw doubled to right.

    ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

    −3pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  23. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Matt Shaw

    ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  24. T9

    ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  25. T9

    Crow-Armstrong grounded out to first.

    ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

    +0.9pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

  30. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    ·

    CHC 4·CIN 7

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

4

Runs

7

11

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

19

TB

22

2

HR

5

3

BB

5

10

K

6

12

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CIN vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    4.7± 2.8low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    46.9%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.4%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.1%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.