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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2KC
SEA

SEA

83-69

5
7
KC

KC

76-76

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
19,127 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

SEA 5 · KC 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0200001115
KC300000047

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 19, 25sim 98
    164
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 7, 25sim 97
    128
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 95
    225
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 95
    138
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 95
    63
    11(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 95
    144
    17(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 17·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Seattle Mariners, 7–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Eugenio Suarez

Eugenio Suarez

DH

2.750OPS

4-4

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez

C

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA83-69
5
7
KC76-76
SEA83-69·KC76-76
SEA

SEA

83-69

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44000003
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-44010001
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.688
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-33100010
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
4-44342100
SPRINT25.818
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT23.81
M. GarverM. Garver★C
0-11001011
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
0-33000000
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT25.513
D. CanzoneD. CanzoneDH
0-11000000
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
1-11010000
Team10-33335104227
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. MillerB. Miller★SP
5.0833241
C. FergusonC. FergusonRP
1.0100100
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
1.0000000
M. BrashM. BrashRP
0.2444111
C. VargasC. VargasRP
0.1000000
Team8.01377452
KC

KC

76-76

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-55010002
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-55021001
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
2-55120000
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44110001
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-22113120
SPRINT241
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
2-44122100
SPRINT26.225
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-44110000
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
1-22111021
SPRINT27.457
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-11000000
T. TolbertT. Tolbert2B
2-22020000
Team13-34347137245
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RagansC. Ragans★SP
3.2122241
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
0.1200010
M. LorenzenM. LorenzenSP
1.0000010
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.0000000
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.0111000
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0311011
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0311000
Team9.01055272

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • B. Miller
    89 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.7 mph·21% whiff
    • FS
      29%·84.2 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      18%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      8%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      2%·83.0 mph·— whiff
  • M. Brash
    30 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      27%·95.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      23%·89.8 mph·67% whiff
  • C. Ferguson
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      56%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·93.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SV
      6%·81.8 mph·— whiff
  • G. Speier
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      100%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Vargas
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·97.4 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • C. Ragans
    62 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      48%·95.7 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.3 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      15%·84.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      6%·78.7 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      53%·97.5 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      26%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      16%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Estevez
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      65%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·87.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    15 pitches·7% CSW
    • FF
      47%·94.0 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      20%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·82.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.6 mph·— whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      40%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      38%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      23%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Lorenzen
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      33%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·82.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      17%·89.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      8%·81.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

13

5

Runs

7

1

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 2-1

Sep 16SEASEA12@KCKC5
Sep 17SEASEA5@KCKC7today
Sep 18SEASEA2@KCKC0

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Jul 1KCKC2@SEASEA6
Jul 2KCKC6@SEASEA3
Jul 3KCKC2@SEASEA3
Jul 4KCKC3@SEASEA2
Sep 16SEASEA12@KCKC5
Sep 17SEASEA5@KCKC7today
Sep 18SEASEA2@KCKC0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 51pp · Bottom 8th Inning

SEASEA
E. Suarez

E. Suarez

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

B. Miller

B. Miller

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

KCKC
S. Perez

S. Perez

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

C. Ragans

C. Ragans

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

How it ended

KC beat SEA 7-5. Frazier's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (51pp).

Win probability

KC vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+25pp→ 80% WP

Perez · homered to center (435 feet), Pasquantino scored and Garcia scored.

SEATop 8th Inning · 4-3
+26pp→ 79% WP

Crawford · homered to right (386 feet).

KCBottom 8th Inning · 4-5
+51pp→ 87% WP

Frazier · homered to left (338 feet), Massey scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0200001115
KC30000004—7

Period scoring

SEA won 2 · KC won 2

0
3

Inn 1

Perez 3

2
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Garver 1

1
4

Inn 8

Crawford 1

Frazier 2

1

Inn 9

Canzone 1

SEA
KC

Play-by-play · 572 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

  2. T9

    Crawford grounded out to third.

    · ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

  4. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to J.P. Crawford

    · ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

  5. T9

    ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

  6. T9

    Raley singled to left.

    ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

    −2pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

  12. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Luke Raley

    ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

  13. T9

    Raley hit for Robles

    ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

  14. T9

    ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

  15. T9

    Canzone grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Suárez scored, Naylor out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

    +13pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 7

  22. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Dominic Canzone

    · ·

    SEA 5·KC 7

  23. T9

    Canzone hit for Garver

    ·

    SEA 4·KC 7

  24. T9

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 7

  25. T9

    Naylor singled to center, Suárez to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 7

    −8pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 7

  28. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Josh Naylor

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 7

  29. T9

    ·

    SEA 4·KC 7

  30. T9

    Suárez singled to left.

    ·

    SEA 4·KC 7

    −3pp

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

KC

Home

5

Runs

7

10

Hits

13

1

Errors

0

17

TB

22

2

HR

2

2

BB

4

7

K

5

8

LOB

17

Player projections

KC vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Colt EmersonSEA
    0.6± 1.4low

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    46.5%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.7%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.3%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.98 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688